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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY dipped 20 points as the greenback weakened and the yen gained a bit of momentum on safe haven trades and comments

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 26, 2015 – Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY dipped 20 points as the greenback weakened and the yen gained a bit of momentum on safe haven trades and comments from the BoJ in this morning’s minute’s release. The USDJPY is trading at 122.32.  The buck was recently down 0.2% against the Swiss franc at 1.0165, while losing 0.3% versus the Japanese yen to ¥122.50. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against a basket of 16 currencies, was down 0.2% at 90.34.

Turkish F-16s shot down a Russian jet fighter along the Syrian border on Tuesday, the first time since 1952 that a North Atlantic Treaty Organization member has shot down a Russian plane. The news pushed investors to take profit in recent dollar gains and shift funds into currencies like the yen and Swiss franc, which some market participants believe will outperform other assets in times of geopolitical or financial uncertainty.

Rising tensions between Russia and Turkey could hurt the dollar by making markets more volatile and reducing the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month, analysts at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange said in a note to clients. Higher rates boost the dollar’s value buy making it more attractive to yield-seeking investors.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

2.600M

-0.200M

-0.482M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)

-3.6%

-2.1%

2.1%

   

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

 

45.5K

44.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

   

 

usdjpy

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, November 26, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

 

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

 

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

 

-3.0%

-4.0%

 

 

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate (Dec)

 

9.2

9.4

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

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