USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY remains flat trading at 78.26 staying within a very tight range.  The U.S. dollar index traded solidly higher Tuesday, on more short covering in a bear market and on some safe-haven demand. The U.S. dollar bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. 

As markets become more worried about the Chinese slowdown and growth throughout the world and the ongoing EU debt crisis and the US fiscal cliff, risk aversion is returning to the markets supporting the JPY. Also a stronger than expected print of current account figures.  IMF Deputy Managing Director Shinohara, a former MoF official, has suggested that the BoJ embark on more aggressive easing, but refrained from supporting measures involving purchases of foreign bonds

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 10

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

 

 

1.60% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean M2 Money supply 

9.20%

 

 

 

9.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German WPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 

-3.0%

 

 

 

-2.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Finnish Industry Output (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

 

 

2.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 11

01:30

AUD

Employment Change 

3.8K 

-8.8K 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.0B 

-42.0B 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3275K 

3281K 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-4.0B 

-191.0B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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