USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.91 as the USD finally has broken out of the tight range below the mid 78 that it was stuck in for over a month. The US government reported yesterday that retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in September, outpacing market calls for a 0.8% increase. Retail sales in August were revised up to a 1.2% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.9%. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, rose by 1.1%, beating expectations for a 0.6% increase. This was the last piece of major data needed to support a strong recovery for the US. Jobs, housing, consumer confidence and sales now seem to be marching in the right direction.

Elsewhere, manufacturing activity in New York State contracted for the third consecutive month.
The New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions improved to -6.2 in October from -10.4 in September, but missed analysts’ predictions for a reading of around -4.5. These are considering leading indicators and last month most of the Fed indices were weak but the end of the month report showed a strong increase in manufacturing.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 16, 2012 actual v. forecast – there are no eco releases for the Asian markets today. Yesterday’s eco releases are below

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 15

 

GBP

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

3.5%

 

 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.8%

 

1.4% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.6%

 

-3.6% 

 

-3.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-1.3% 

 

-1.3% 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.40%

 

8.20% 

 

8.00% 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish CPI (YoY) 

3.8%

 

3.9% 

 

3.8% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.6% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.8% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

USD

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-6.2

 

-4.5 

 

-10.4 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 17

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.810M

0.801M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.770M

0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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