USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 16, 2012 6:50 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.91 as the USD finally has broken out of the tight range below the mid 78 that it was stuck in for over a month. The US government reported yesterday that retail sales rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.1% in September, outpacing market calls for a 0.8% increase. Retail sales in August were revised up to a 1.2% gain from a previously reported increase of 0.9%. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, rose by 1.1%, beating expectations for a 0.6% increase. This was the last piece of major data needed to support a strong recovery for the US. Jobs, housing, consumer confidence and sales now seem to be marching in the right direction.

Elsewhere, manufacturing activity in New York State contracted for the third consecutive month.
The New York Federal Reserve’s index of manufacturing conditions improved to -6.2 in October from -10.4 in September, but missed analysts’ predictions for a reading of around -4.5. These are considering leading indicators and last month most of the Fed indices were weak but the end of the month report showed a strong increase in manufacturing.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 16, 2012 actual v. forecast – there are no eco releases for the Asian markets today. Yesterday’s eco releases are below

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	1.8%	1.4%	-0.7%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-3.6%	-3.6%	-3.5%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.3%	-1.3%
	TRY	Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate	8.40%	8.20%	8.00%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	PLN	Polish CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 17	13:30	USD	Building Permits	0.810M	0.801M
	13:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.770M	0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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