USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 03, 2012 6:26 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY climbed to 78.22 on a stronger USD and disappointing Japanese eco data. The overall factor here is the BoJ. Today in FX markets, CNY is weak, however with China on holiday, the trading pattern is awkward; AUD is down 0.5% on the RBA; JPY is down 0.2% on a better risk environment.

The JPY was mixed against the dollar and euro this morning as investors speculated over possible monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The dollar was at 78.18. The dollar has drifted higher above the 78.00 mark despite a steadiness in US Treasury yields. Continued pressure on the BoJ from new Economy Minister Seiji Maehara to do more may have raised expectations of overseas investors for additional easing this month, he said in a note. The Japanese central bank, which last month surprised markets with a 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) expansion of its asset purchase program, is to hold a two-day policy meeting to Friday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Previous
Oct. 03	GBP	BRC Shop Price Index (YoY)	1.00%	1.10%
	AUD	AIG Services Index	41.9	42.4
	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.3%	-5.6%
	CNY	Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI	53.70	56.30
	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.03B	-1.53B

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 04	02:30	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	4.7%	-17.3%
	02:30	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.8%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	359K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3271K	3271K
Oct. 05	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	110K	96K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	103K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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