USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY climbed to 78.22 on a stronger USD and disappointing Japanese eco data. The overall factor here is the BoJ. Today in FX markets, CNY is weak, however with China on holiday, the trading pattern is awkward; AUD is down 0.5% on the RBA; JPY is down 0.2% on a better risk environment.

The JPY was mixed against the dollar and euro this morning as investors speculated over possible monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).   The dollar was at 78.18. The dollar has drifted higher above the 78.00 mark despite a steadiness in US Treasury yields.  Continued pressure on the BoJ from new Economy Minister Seiji Maehara to do more may have raised expectations of overseas investors for additional easing this month, he said in a note.   The Japanese central bank, which last month surprised markets with a 10 trillion yen ($128 billion) expansion of its asset purchase program, is to hold a two-day policy meeting to Friday. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 03

 

GBP

 

 

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) 

1.00%

 

 

1.10% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

AIG Services Index 

41.9

 

 

42.4 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.3%

 

 

-5.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI 

53.70

 

 

56.30 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-2.03B

 

 

-1.53B 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 04

02:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

4.7% 

-17.3% 

 

02:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4% 

-0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

359K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K 

3271K 

 Oct. 05

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

110K 

96K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4 

34.4 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

125K 

103K 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country   

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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