USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY continues to fall trading at 77.86 in Asian trading. Even with political turmoil, economic trepidations inaction by the BoJ and falling industrial production and exports, the JPY remains strong against the USD.

The BoJ will meet next week to decide what to do to jumpstart the Japanese economy, while the strong yen continues to hurt the exporters.

With the FOMC decisions due tomorrow, markets will trade in a tight range as the US dollar has declined as traders’ position themselves ahead of the release. Japan did surprise markets today with a rise in machinery orders, but a decline in industrial activity.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 12

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

CGPI (YoY) 

-1.8%

 

-1.9% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) 

4.6%

 

1.5% 

 

5.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.60%

 

 

 

-2.50% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Housing Starts (QoQ) 

4.60%

 

2.00% 

 

-7.80% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep.13 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1% 

0.3% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

365K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3318K 

3322K 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (YoY) 

1.4% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.5% 

 

17:30

USD

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25% 

0.25% 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-155.0B 

-69.6B 

Sep. 14

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2% 

-1.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.8% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.6% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.1 

74.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

Sep 13 17:00 US 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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