USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY saw the US dollar continue to weaken to trade as low as 77.13 before settling around the 77.50 level. The pair is trading at 77.65 on Friday as Asian markets are ready to close. The reason the EUR/USD reacted more significantly to the easing than did the USD/JPY is because, at the time, the monetary policies of the U.S. and Euro zone were more divergent than those today in the U.S. and Japan.

The market had been talking about it for weeks and investors had plenty of time to position for the announcement — classic sell-the-rumor, buy-the-news. That’s not to say this time around the dollar won’t remain weak. If Europe doesn’t give investors a reason to seek safety in the U.S. dollar, the EUR/USD could extend its gains. However losses in USD/JPY could be limited to 76, as investors grow weary of Bank of Japan intervention. 

Retail sales, consumer prices, industrial production and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index are scheduled for release later today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 14

05:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

-1.2% 

 

-1.2% 

 

Economic Data September 13, 2012 actual v. forecast for the US, since markets were too focused on the FOMC, it is important to look at the entire picture.

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.7%

 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

 

370K 

 

367K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3283K

 

3318K 

 

3332K 

   

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25%

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

-191.0B

 

-155.0B 

 

-69.6B 

 

 

  

 Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 

Event

 

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 18

23:45

NZD

 

Current Account 

 

-1.66B 

-1.31B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway 

Sep 18 08:30 Spain 

Sep 18 09:10 Greece 

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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