USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis September 24, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is trading at 78.14 as the JPY continues to remain strong, even though the BoJ tried to weaken the currency by introducing new monetary stimulus. The USD is trading strong against its crosses except here.

The yen is up 0.2% vs the USD, buoyed by risk aversion as weak data fails to matter.  Japan’s merchandise trade deficit was worse than expected on the headline, but both export and import volumes contracted less than expected on a y/y basis.  Although the FX market reaction to yesterday’s BoJ easing has proved to be short lived, it appears that the most recent round of policy accommodation has been largely driven by considerations of yen strength and its impact on economic activity. The threat of intervention remains present as vocal MoF officials may have been waiting for the BoJ meeting to pass, however this is not our base case

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 21, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

Visitor Arrivals (MoM) 

5.4%

 

 

 

-3.3% 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

CB Leading Index (MoM) 

0.0%

 

 

 

0.5% 

  

 

 

NZD

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY) 

1.0%

 

 

 

0.1% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

There is no Tier 1 or 2 data scheduled for the 24th, only local and regional reports.

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 24 09:10 Norway 

Sep 24 09:30 Germany 

Sep 24 10:00 Belgium 

Sep 24 15:30 Italy  

Sep 25 08:30 Holland 

Sep 25 08:30 Spain 

Sep 25 09:10 Italy  

Sep 25 14:30 UK 

Sep 25 17:00 US 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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