USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY is completely flat, trading at 78.40. Between interest rate and bond yields between the JPY and the USD along with poor economic data on both sides of the Pacific, it is hard to tell who is stronger than whom and for what reason. Word is that the BoJ and MoF are trying to intervene to reduce the JPY, but are not being successful.

The greenback continues to weaken on hopes of Fed stimulus come September 13th.

Even though risk-on sentiment prevailed as market participants continued to speculate over the bond buying program, of which ECB Pres. Draghi is expected to give more detail during today’s press conference. In terms of Japan specific commentary, BoJ member Miyao spoke of the downside risks to global growth, further challenging exports in a strong yen environment.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 06

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean GDP (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

-8.8K

 

5.0K 

 

11.7K 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

30-Year JGB Auction 

1.902%

 

 

 

1.848% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the AUD, NZD, JPY and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 07

02:30

AUD

Trade Balance 

-0.30B 

0.01B 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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