Advertisement
Advertisement

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Sep 10, 2016, 06:56 UTC

The USD/JPY bounced around all week only to end at 102.72 up by 0.23% as the greenback soared late on Friday on comments from several Federal Reserve

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – week of September 12, 2016 – Forecast

The USD/JPY bounced around all week only to end at 102.72 up by 0.23% as the greenback soared late on Friday on comments from several Federal Reserve members supporting a rate increase. Japanese economic data for the week was disappointing as traders prepare for next week’s Bank of Japan meeting. Moving into the new week the pair is a strong sell as it will most likely move back to the 101 price level. On Monday of next week, several Fed officials are expected to speak, and Thursday will see the release of several key economic indicators including the weekly jobless claims, the producer price index, retail sales, and industrial production reports. The consumer price index will also be released on Friday.

Although these figures are likely to be altered following the Monday speeches, current expectations are that the Fed may raise rates from 0.50 to 0.75 during the December FOMC meeting.

According to the CME Group’s Fedwatch tool, the current implied probability of a hike from 0.50 to 0.75 is at 24 percent at the September 2016 meeting, 27 percent at the November 2016 meeting, and 58 percent at the December meeting.

Traders said the market had not reacted much to China’s better-than-expected trade data on Thursday or foreign exchange figures on Wednesday. China’s imports unexpectedly rose in August for the first time in nearly two years while exports fell at a more modest pace. Foreign exchange reserves fell by a “modest” US$15.89 billion to US$3.185 trillion in August.

Traders believe the central bank has stepped in via state-run banks since mid-July to slow the pace of depreciation in the yuan, which has weakened 2.6 per cent against the US dollar so far this year.

FxEmpire provides a wide variety of analysis on a daily, weekly and monthly basis ranging from our exceptional technical analysis as well as our in-depth fundamental analysis along with our daily news and market updates. To get the best understanding of each asset it is important to review the short term daily analysis with the longer term monthly reports. To get email notification when each of these are posted please sign up for our daily newsletter.

usdjpy

This Week’s Economic Events That You Should Be Monitoring:

Date Country Name Volatility Previous Consensus
9/13/2016 GBP Core Consumer Price Index 3 1.3 1.4
9/13/2016 GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 0.6 0.7
9/13/2016 EUR ECB President Draghi’s Speech 3
9/13/2016 EUR ZEW Survey – Economic 3 4.6 6.7
9/14/2016 NZD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 3 2.8
9/15/2016 AUD Employment Change 3 26.2 15
9/15/2016 AUD Unemployment Rate 3 5.7 5.7
9/15/2016 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 3 -0.75 -0.75
9/15/2016 CHF SNB press conference 3
9/15/2016 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Facility 3 435 435
9/15/2016 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 3 0.25 0.25
9/15/2016 GBP Monetary Policy Summary 3
9/15/2016 GBP BOE MPC Vote Cut 3 9 0
9/15/2016 GBP BOE MPC Vote Unchanged 3 0 9
9/15/2016 GBP BOE MPC Vote Hike 3 0 0
9/15/2016 GBP Bank of England Minutes 3
9/15/2016 USD Retail Sales (MoM) 3 0 0
9/16/2016 USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) 3 0.8 1
9/16/2016 USD Consumer Price Index ECORE 3 2.2 2.2
9/16/2016 USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment 3 89.8 91

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time           Country               Auction

Sep 12 11:30 Germany Eur 2bn Mar 2017 Bubill

Sep 12 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Sep 14

Sep 13 11:00 Netherlands Eur 2-3bn 0% Jan 2022 DSL

Sep 13 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Sep 14 11:30 UK 0.125% 2046 I/L Gilt

Sep 14 11:30 Germany Eur 1bn 2.5% Jul 2044 Bund

Sep 15 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Sep 15 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Sep 15 11:50 France Holds bond auction

 

 

 

About the Author

Did you find this article useful?

Advertisement