USD/JPY Fundamental Forecast – February 10, 2016

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Published: Feb 9, 2016, 05:06 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY saw major declines as the US dollar weakened and traders ran for safe assets. Gold had already been pumped up so

USD/JPY Fundamental Forecast – February 10, 2016

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY saw major declines as the US dollar weakened and traders ran for safe assets. Gold had already been pumped up so traders went for the yen as it gained 1.12 against the greenback to trade at 114.73. The U.S. dollar fell to 15-month low against the Japanese yen as the declining oil prices raised market demand for safe-haven currencies. Oil prices extended losses on Monday, with the U.S. crude settling bellow 30 U.S. dollars a barrel again, as market expected the global supplies to exceed the demand.

The yen, one of the major safe-haven assets, rose nearly 1 percent to its highest level against the greenback since November 2014. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was down 0.38 percent at 96.667 in late trading.

With no major data came out Monday, investors were also digesting the closely-watched nonfarm payroll issued Friday. The U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday that total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 151,000 in January, well below market expectation of 188,000. The unemployment rate, however, edged down to 4.9 percent in January, dipping below 5 percent for the first time since 2008.

The yen strengthened past 115 per dollar for the first time in more than a year and Japan’s benchmark 10-year yield fell below zero for the first time on record as haven assets benefited from unease that global growth is fading, prompting traders to slash bets the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.

Japan’s currency, which climbs in times of turmoil thanks to the nation’s current-account surplus, rose against all 31 major peers as the Topix index of shares tumbled 5 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Lunar New Year
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)	2.6%	0.4%	0.1%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jan)	2	2	3

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Lunar New Year
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			3.837M
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)		0.3%	-0.2%
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		-1.0%	-3.5%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)			-2.7%
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)		-0.1%	-0.7%
GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)		0.1%	-0.4%
GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate			0.6%
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		3.933M	7.792M
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jan)		45.0B	-14.0B