Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY was the focal point of safe haven moves this week ending at 113.22 seeing a drop of 3.15%. The U.S.
The USD/JPY was the focal point of safe haven moves this week ending at 113.22 seeing a drop of 3.15%. The U.S. dollar traded mixed against other major currencies and rose against the Japanese yen for the first time this week as the economic data from the country came out positive.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported Friday that the country’s retail and food services sales for January were 449.9 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 0.2 percent from the previous month, and 3.4 percent above January 2015.
The latest reading was in line with market consensus and renewed investors’ expectation for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. The greenback inched up 0.8 percent against the Japanese yen during the session on Friday. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, was up 0.42 percent at 95.967 in late trading.
The dollar rebounded against the yen on Friday as solid US retail sales data and rising oil prices lifted sentiment on global markets after a punishing week.
The dollar rebounded 0.8 per cent to ¥113.25 around 2200 GMT from the same time on Thursday. During the Thursday session, it had fallen to ¥110.99, its weakest level since October 2014. “For the first time in 10 trading days the US dollar ended the day higher against the Japanese yen thanks to better-than-expected retail sales and a rebound in oil prices,” said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.
US retail sales rose 0.2 per cent in January and December’s drop was revised upward to a 0.2 per cent gain. “This report confirms our view that consumers are doing most of the heavy lifting despite stock market volatility,” said Chris Christopher of IHS Global Insight. “The consumer outlook for the next couple of years remains favorable.”
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Major Economic Events for the week:
Cur. | Event | Actual | Forecast | Previous | ||||
Monday, February 15, 2016 | ||||||||
United States – Presidents’ Day | ||||||||
Canada – Family Day | ||||||||
CNY | Trade Balance (Jan) | 58.85B | 60.09B | |||||
Tuesday, February 16, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 0.3% | 0.2% | |||||
EUR | German ZEW Economic | 3.2 | 10.2 | |||||
Wednesday, February 17, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | Average Earnings Index | 1.9% | 2.0% | |||||
GBP | Claimant Count Change (Jan) | -3.0K | -4.3K | |||||
USD | Building Permits (Jan) | 1.200M | 1.204M | |||||
USD | PPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.2% | -0.2% | |||||
Thursday, February 18, 2016 | ||||||||
AUD | Employment Change (Jan) | 15.0K | -1.0K | |||||
CNY | CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.9% | 1.6% | |||||
USD | Philadelphia Fed | -2.8 | -3.5 | |||||
USD | Crude Oil Inventories | -0.754M | ||||||
Friday, February 19, 2016 | ||||||||
GBP | Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | 0.8% | -1.0% | |||||
USD | Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | 0.1% | |||||
CAD | Core CPI (MoM) (Jan) | 0.2% | -0.4% | |||||
CAD | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.5% | 1.1% |
Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Feb 15 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Feb 17
Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction
Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction
Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund
Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction
Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction
Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction
Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25
Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction