USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

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USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 15-19, 2012 Forecast

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY closed at 78.44,after the dollar rose against the yen on Friday, lifted by news that Japanese mobile carrier Softbank is in advanced talks on a multi-billion-dollar buyout deal with Sprint Nextel.

 Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 12, 2012

78.44

78.42

78.53

78.29

0.04%

Oct 11, 2012

78.41

78.08

78.59

77.95

0.42%

Oct 10, 2012

78.08

78.24

78.37

78.04

-0.21%

Oct 09, 2012

78.24

78.30

78.43

78.15

-0.07%

Oct 08, 2012

78.29

78.71

78.71

78.09

-0.53%

Softbank is eyeing a monster $25 billion buy-in to the US telecom market including the takeover of Sprint Nextel in what could be one of Japan Inc.’s biggest-ever overseas acquisition, reports said Friday. Sprint Nextel said it was talking to Softbank on a possible takeover by Japan’s third largest mobile carrier, while Softbank also confirmed on talks with the US firm but noted no decisions had been made yet. The way of financing varies; the firm may have some dollar holdings. Still, there should be dollar-buying to a certain extent. Banks, asked by the telecom firm, will likely purchase dollars over a certain period of time. The dollar was also supported against the yen after Japanese finance minister Koriki Jojima expressed at the Group of Seven meeting in Tokyo concerns about the high levels of the currency, dealers said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.  

Major Economic Events for the week of October 8-12, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence 

8

 

-4

Oct. 09

JPY

Adjusted Current Account 

0.72T

0.52T

0.34T

 

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

0

 

-3

Oct. 10 

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

1.60%

 

USD

10-Year Note Auction 

1.700%

 

1.764%

 Oct. 11

AUD

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K

-9.1K

 

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.1%

 

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B

-42.5B

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K

369K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K

3288K

Oct. 12

JPY

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

-1.9%

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.2%

0.2%

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7%

1.7%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

1.8%

2.0%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

2.5%

2.5%

 

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

78.0

78.3

 

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

75.0B

42.0B

-191.0B

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 15

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

-1.0%

 

05:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

-1.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

0.8%

 

13:30

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.0

-10.4

 

22:45

NZD

CPI (QoQ) 

0.6%

0.3%

Oct. 16

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.810M

0.801M

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.770M

0.750M

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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