USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY closed the week at 78.66, after the greenback rose against the yen on as data showed the U.S. unemployment rate last month fell to nearly a four-year low and the economy created jobs that were slightly above expectations. The dollar rose to session highs against the yen to 78.78 and was last at 78.72 yen, up 0.3 percent.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Oct 05, 2012

78.66

78.52

78.87

78.28

0.19%

Oct 04, 2012

78.52

78.45

78.72

78.31

0.09%

Oct 03, 2012

78.45

78.22

78.59

78.13

0.29%

Oct 02, 2012

78.22

78.05

78.25

77.98

0.22%

Oct 01, 2012

78.05

77.97

78.15

77.79

0.11%

On Thursday the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark uncollateralized overnight call rate at between zero and 0.1 percent and held its asset purchase program, though it flagged a weaker growth outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy. The bank expanded its money printing program by 10 trillion yen in September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

JPY

Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 

-3

-3 

-1 

 

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

51.5

49.7 

49.6 

 Oct. 02

AUD

Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

3.50% 

3.50% 

Oct. 03

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.3%

 

-5.6% 

 

AUD

Trade Balance 

-2.03B

-0.70B 

-1.53B 

 

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

162K

143K 

189K 

 

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

55.1

53.2 

53.7 

Oct. 04

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) 

6.4%

4.7% 

-21.2% 

 

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4% 

-0.8% 

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

367K

370K 

363K 

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3281K

3271K 

3281K 

Oct. 05

JPY

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

0.10% 

0.10% 

 

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

113K 

142K 

 

USD

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

8.2% 

8.1% 

 

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

34.4 

34.4 

 

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

130K 

97K 

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 08

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Confidence 

 

-4

Oct. 09

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence 

 

-2

Oct. 11

01:30

AUD

Employment Change 

3.8K

-8.8K

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

 

 

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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