USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 06, 2012 9:41 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY closed the week at 78.66, after the greenback rose against the yen on as data showed the U.S. unemployment rate last month fell to nearly a four-year low and the economy created jobs that were slightly above expectations. The dollar rose to session highs against the yen to 78.78 and was last at 78.72 yen, up 0.3 percent.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 05, 2012	78.66	78.52	78.87	78.28	0.19%
Oct 04, 2012	78.52	78.45	78.72	78.31	0.09%
Oct 03, 2012	78.45	78.22	78.59	78.13	0.29%
Oct 02, 2012	78.22	78.05	78.25	77.98	0.22%
Oct 01, 2012	78.05	77.97	78.15	77.79	0.11%

On Thursday the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark uncollateralized overnight call rate at between zero and 0.1 percent and held its asset purchase program, though it flagged a weaker growth outlook for the world’s third-biggest economy. The bank expanded its money printing program by 10 trillion yen in September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	JPY	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index	-3	-3	-1
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.5	49.7	49.6
Oct. 02	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.25%	3.50%	3.50%
Oct. 03	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.3%		-5.6%
	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.03B	-0.70B	-1.53B
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.1	53.2	53.7
Oct. 04	AUD	Building Approvals (MoM)	6.4%	4.7%	-21.2%
	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.2%	0.4%	-0.8%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
Oct. 05	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Unemployment Rate	7.8%	8.2%	8.1%
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	22:00	NZD	NZIER Business Confidence		-4
Oct. 09	01:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		-2
Oct. 11	01:30	AUD	Employment Change	3.8K	-8.8K

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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