USD/JPY Weekly Fundamental Analysis September 10-14, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 08, 2012 7:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction: In the USD/JPY trade, trying to pick tops or bottoms during that time would have been difficult. However, with the bull trend so dominant, the far easier and smarter trade was to look for technical opportunities to go with the fundamental theme and trade with the market trend rather than to trying to fade it.
Against the Japanese yen, whose central bank held rates steady at zero, the dollar appreciated 19% from its lowest to highest levels. USD/JPY was in a very strong uptrend throughout the year, but even so, there were plenty of retraces along the way. These pullbacks were perfect opportunities for traders to combine technicals with fundamentals to enter the trade at an opportune moment.

The interest rate differential between the Bank of Japan(BoJ) and the Federal Reserve
Japanese government intervention to maintain their currency sends USD/JPY lower

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY fell to its lowest level by the close on Friday, trading at 78.26. The pair had been stuck in the bottom of the 78 range for the last two weeks, but after the ECB bond program announcement, traders moved to more risk away from the yen, which allowed the pair to move upwards trading as high at 79.03 until the lackluster jobs report on Friday, which all but assured markets of Fed monetary stimulus come September 13th.

This weakened the US dollar globally, seeing the euro break above the 1.28 price level. Risk on continued to be the market them, as traders pushed gold, and silver to new highs, but the JPY gained against the USD trading as low as 78.02

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Sep 07, 2012	78.26	78.89	79.02	78.02	-0.80%
Sep 06, 2012	78.89	78.42	79.03	78.38	0.60%
Sep 05, 2012	78.43	78.48	78.54	78.31	-0.07%
Sep 04, 2012	78.48	78.34	78.48	78.29	0.18%
Sep 03, 2012	78.34	78.31	78.40	78.20	0.05%

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of September 3-7, 2012 actual v. forecast for Yen, the Aussie, the Kiwi and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 03	00:50	JPY	Capital Spending	7.70%	8.90%	3.30%
	02:30	AUD	Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)	-0.7%	1.0%	-3.7%
	02:30	AUD	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.8%	0.2%	1.2%
Sep. 04	02:30	AUD	Current Account	-11.8B	-12.2B	-13.0B
	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%	3.50%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.6	50.0	49.8
Sep. 05	02:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	0.7%	1.4%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)	2.2%	1.8%	1.6%
	13:30	USD	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)	1.5%	1.5%	1.7%
Sep. 06	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	-8.8K	5.0K	11.7K
	02:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.1%	5.3%	5.2%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	201K	140K	173K
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	365K	370K	377K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3322K	3315K	3328K
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	53.7	52.5	52.6
Sep. 07	02:30	AUD	Trade Balance	-0.56B	-0.30B	-0.23B
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.0%	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	96K	125K	141K
	13:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.1%	8.3%	8.3%
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.5	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	103K	138K	162K

Historical: From 2010 to present

Highest: 94.99 on May 05, 2010

Average: 82.77 over this period

Lowest: 75.58 on Oct 31, 2011

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the AUD, JPY, NZD and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 10	00:50	JPY	GDP (QoQ)	0.3%	0.3%
	02:30	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)		1.3%
Sep. 11	00:50	JPY	BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions		-5.7
	02:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence		4
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-44.2B	-42.9B
Sep. 12	01:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment		-2.50%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	1.3%	-0.6%
	22:00	NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.50%	2.50%
Sep. 14	05:30	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)		-1.2%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 10 09:30 Germany

Sep 10 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 00:30 Japan

Sep 11 08:30 Holland

Sep 11 09:10 Greece

Sep 11 09:30 UK

Sep 11 14:30 UK

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Italy

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 Germany

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden

Sep 12 17:00 US

Sep 13 00:30 Japan

Sep 13 09:10 Italy

Sep 13 09:30 UK

Sep 13 15:00 US

Sep 13 17:00 US

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles