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E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – July 28, 2016 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Jul 28, 2016, 12:30 UTC

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat shortly ahead of the cash market opening. Yesterday, the index had a two-sided response to the

E-mini S&P 500 Index

September E-mini S&P 500 Index futures are trading flat shortly ahead of the cash market opening. Yesterday, the index had a two-sided response to the Fed’s monetary policy statement. The bulls probably liked the fact that the Fed acknowledged the improving economy. However, the inability to get the Fed to pinpoint the timing of the next rate hike is likely causing some uncertainty today.

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart, however, momentum has been declining since July 14. Despite the recent push into 2172.50, the index is essentially trading at the same place it was two weeks ago.

The closing price reversal top at 2172.50 on July 25 is also helping to produce the sideways price action.

The short-term range is 2142.75 to 2172.50. Its 50% level or pivot at 2157.50 is essentially controlling the direction of the market.

Daily September E-mini S&P 500 Index

The main range is 2065.75 to 2172.50. If there is a sharp sell-off then its retracement zone at 2119.00 to 2106.50 will become the primary downside target.

Based on the current price at 2160.50, the key support is a price cluster at 2157.50. Look for a technical bounce on the first test of this cluster, but if it fails then prepare for the start of a steep sell-off with potential targets at 2142.75 and 2129.75.

A sustained move over 2157.50 will indicate the presence of buyers. However, there are layers of resistance at 2166.50, 2169.50 and 2171.00. The latter is the last potential resistance before the 2172.50 main top.

Taking out 2172.50 will signal a resumption of the uptrend and could trigger an acceleration into 2193.75.

Watch the price action and read the order flow at 2157.50 today. Trader reaction to this level should set the tone for the day.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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