EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY, AUD/CAD And AUD/CHF: Technical Update

EUR/AUD

Although two month old ascending trend-channel continue favoring the EURAUD up-move, pair’s immediate rise seems stopped by the downward slanting trend-line, stretched from August highs, which if not cleared, can pull the pair back to 1.5700 immediate support. Should the pair extends the corrective move below 1.5700, the 1.5500 might act as intermediate halt during its decline to the channel support of 1.5430 mark, breaking which 100-day SMA, near 1.5350, is likely a small number that the pair needs to clear prior to targeting the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – August 2015 upside, near 1.5130. Meanwhile, successful break above the trend-line resistance of 1.6050 can propel the pair to channel resistance-line, around 1.6300, breaking which chances of its rally to August highs of 1.6600 can’t be denied.

AUD/JPY

Following its failure to surpass the 100-day SMA, together with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its June 2012 – April 2013 upside, the AUDJPY was again fetched down towards testing the January month lows of 79.20. Given the pair maintains its south-run below 79.20, the channel support of 76.60 might give rise to its bounce, failing to which can further drag it down to June 2012 lows of 74.30. Should the pair reverses from current levels, 82.00 – 82.10 may provide immediate resistance to it, breaking which 83.50 and the 85.00 are expected consecutive numbers that the pair might aim for before conquering with the 85.90 – 86.10 region, encompassing the 100-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibo. If the pair manages to clear the important resistance-zone and sustains up-move above 86.10, the 87.70 may act as a buffer during its run-up to channel resistance level of 89.00 round figure mark.

AUD/CAD

Since the start of the year 2016, the AUDCAD kept following a descending trend-channel formation, which recently provided a pullback to the pair’s downside; however, 50-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its September – December up-move, near 0.9930-40, could hold back its further advance. If at all the pair closes above 0.9940, the mentioned channel resistance, at 1.0010 now, may not allow the pair to rally further, failing to which can propel its upward trajectory to 1.0100 and the December highs of 1.0170. On the downside, a close below 38.2% Fibo level of 0.9780 can again force the pair to test channel support of 0.9700. Should the pair drops below 0.9700 mark, also clears the 100-day SMA level of 0.9685 and the 50% Fibo level of 0.9650, it can plunge to 0.9500 round figure mark.

AUD/CHF

With repeated failures to clear the 0.7290 – 0.7300 area, comprising of 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its September 2014 – January 2015 downside, the AUDCHF was dragged down to the lowest level since October 2015; though, the pair failed to close below five month old trend-line support, presently at 0.6825, and is presently seems confined by the 23.6% Fibo level, near 0.6950. If the pair stretches its recent pullback beyond 0.6950, the 0.7040 and the 0.7100 – 0.7110 resistance confluence, including 100-day and 200-day SMA, are likely important upside levels to consider for the pair traders. Should it manage to clear the 0.7110 it becomes capable enough to again challenge the 0.7290 – 0.7300 area, which if broken can further fuel the pair prices towards 1.5 years old trend-line resistance of 0.7380. Alternatively, a daily closing below 0.6825 can quickly fetch the pair prices to 0.6700 mark before a year old ascending trend-line support, near 0.6630 limits its further downside. However, pair’s extended southward trajectory below 0.6630 can make it weaker enough to test the January 2015 lows around 0.6400 mark.

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