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EUR/USD 60minutes Chart
The EUR/USD has fallen pretty much from an obvious “3 peaks” in the 1 hour chart attached above. It bottomed at 1.2323 before rebounding up during the US afternoon session. The existing “retracement” seems more than just short term traders covering short as it steadied up on a quiet afternoon and Sydney open to signal a level of optimism.
The 1.2394 is a reference point for the price level when a strong bearish candlestick closed down signalling selling interests. This particular candlestick happens around 2 hours after the London open and sure show an obvious bearish behaviour. We can expect that to be a level of resistance for price to head up as of now. Breaking that level may put the 3 peaks at the spot light again, whether it will break higher today lies in the mood of the London Session.
What you could do, really
In the article, EUR/USD August 7: When Rules Supersede Reality, it continued to be my intermediate term view point to short rallies. In all cases, predicting can be a too upheaval tasks for institutional traders let alone the retail trader. Relying on simple signals for prominent confirmation along with money management rules to help you ride through the probability of up and down. Often after a trend, market just goes wildly up and down as good news pour in faster than bad news. This is a period when uptrend just can’t be ascertained at least when price hit a prominent level first. Be willing to short and stick to the main trend (200MA) but take care of your risks position.