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EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for September 26, 2016

By:
James Hyerczyk
Updated: Sep 26, 2016, 12:40 UTC

The EUR/USD is pushing higher on Monday. The range is tight and volume is low. Traders don’t seem to be paying too much attention to the limited economic

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD is pushing higher on Monday. The range is tight and volume is low. Traders don’t seem to be paying too much attention to the limited economic data today and be looking ahead to the first U.S. presidential debate at 0100 GMT Tuesday. Today is also a risk-off session and since the Euro is a funding currency, it is getting some support from buyers.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

daily-eurusd
Daily EUR/USD

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. It won’t turn up until the EUR/USD takes out the main top at 1.1426. The minor trend will turn up on a trade through 1.1327. The upside momentum is being generated by the closing price reversal bottom formed on September 21.

The main 50% level support is 1.1168. The intermediate 50% level support is 1.1159.

The short-term range is 1.1327 to 1.1122. Its retracement zone at 1.1224 to 1.1249 is the primary upside target. This zone is currently being tested. This zone is important because buyers are going to try to drive the Euro through it in an effort to make 1.1122 a more important bottom. Sellers are going to try to stop the rally in an effort to form a secondary lower top.

Closing over the major 50% level at 1.1168 is helping to generate the upside momentum today.

FORECAST

BASED ON THE CURRENT PRICE AT 1.1248 AND THE INTRADAY UPSIDE BIAS, THE DIRECTION OF THE MARKET THE REST OF THE SESSION IS LIKELY TO BE DETERMINED BY TRADER REACTION TO THE SHORT-TERM FIBONACCI LEVEL AT 1.1249.

A SUSTAINED MOVE OVER 1.1249 WILL INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF BUYERS. THIS COULD TRIGGER A QUICK MOVE INTO THE LONG-TERM DOWNTRENDING ANGLE AT 1.1261. THIS IS THE TRIGGER POINT FOR AN ACCELERATION TO THE UPSIDE WITH THE NEXT TARGET COMING IN AT 1.1327.

A SUSTAINED MOVE UNDER 1.1249 WILL SIGNAL THE PRESENCE OF SELLERS. THIS COULD DRIVE THE MARKET INTO A LONG-TERM UPTRENDING ANGLE AT 1.1240. IF THIS ANGLE FAILS THEN LOOK FOR A BREAK INTO THE SHORT-TERM 50% LEVEL AT 1.1224. THIS IS THE TRIGGER POINT FOR AN ACCELERATION TO THE DOWNSIDE WITH THE NEXT MAJOR TARGET COMING IN AT 1.1176.

WATCH THE PRICE ACTION AND READ THE ORDER FLOW AT 1.1249. TRADER REACTION TO THIS LEVEL WILL TELL US IF THE BUYING IS GETTING STRONGER OR IF SELLERS ARE SHOWING UP.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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