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ICE Coffee Futures (KC) Technical Analysis – August 9, 2016 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: Aug 9, 2016, 05:14 UTC

September ICE Coffee futures reversed course after an early session rally to close lower for the day. The early rally was technically driven by last

Coffee Beans Daily

September ICE Coffee futures reversed course after an early session rally to close lower for the day. The early rally was technically driven by last week’s reversal bottom and fundamentally by the news of slowing exports from top producer Vietnam.

After the early rally, sellers came in as the U.S. Dollar firmed. This made coffee more expensive for foreign buyers, therefore, lowering demand. Increasing supply also became an issue. Brazil’s coffee harvest is now well advanced with a large crop anticipated. This news helped limit gains and put a cap on the rally.

Technically, the main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The trend will turn up on a trade through $146.35. A move through $136.95 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

Daily September ICE Coffee

The short-term range is $146.35 to $136.95. The close below its retracement zone at $141.65 to $142.75 indicates increasing selling pressure.

The main range is $122.80 to $154.80. Its retracement zone at $138.80 to $135.00 is the primary downside target. This zone stopped the rally last week when the market bottom at $136.95.

Based on the close at $141.10, look for a downside bias today as long as Coffee remains under $141.65. The first three target levels come in at $139.95, $138.80 and $138.45. These are the last potential support levels before the $136.95 main bottom.

Taking out $136.95 will signal a resumption of the downtrend with the next major target a price cluster at $135.30 to $135.00.

Crossing to the strong side of $141.65 will indicate the presence of buyers. However, a move over the resistance cluster at $142.75, $142.85 and $142.95 will trigger an acceleration to the upside with the next potential targets $145.90, $146.30 and $146.35.

Look for a downside bias all session today on a sustained move under $141.65. The bias will shift to the upside on a sustained move over $142.95.

Rollover to the December Coffee futures chart on Wednesday.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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