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US Dollar Index (DX) Futures Technical Analysis – May 30, 2016 Forecast

By:
James Hyerczyk
Published: May 30, 2016, 00:21 UTC

The June U.S. Dollar Index futures market is closed Monday because of the U.S. Memorial Day bank holiday so we’ll take a look at the weekly chart which

US Dollar

The June U.S. Dollar Index futures market is closed Monday because of the U.S. Memorial Day bank holiday so we’ll take a look at the weekly chart which should offer you guidance all week especially when combined with the daily chart analysis.

Weekly June U.S. Dollar Index

The main trend is down according to the weekly swing chart, however, momentum has been to the upside since the formation of the weekly closing price reversal bottom the week-ending May 6. At that time we forecast a 2 to 3 week rally equal to at least 50% of the last break. This move was accomplished last week so we may see some profit-taking or even the start of a short-term correction.

The short-term range is 98.70 to 91.88. Its retracement zone and first upside target is 95.29 to 96.095. A pair of angles at 95.45 and 95.88 also pass through this zone, making them valid targets. The market is currently testing this zone.

The main range is 100.70 to 91.88. Its retracement zone at 96.29 to 97.33 is another major upside target.

Based on the close at 95.50, the direction of the market this week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at 95.29.

A sustained move over 95.29 will signal the presence of buyers. Overcoming the downtrending angle at 95.45 will indicate the buying is getting stronger. Overtaking the steep uptrending angle at 95.88 will put the index in a bullish position with the next target the Fibonacci level at 96.095.

A breakout over 96.095 should trigger a fast rally into the major 50% level at 96.29. This level is the trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next major targets a downtrending angle at 97.08 and the major Fibonacci level at 97.33.

A sustained move under 95.29 will indicate the presence of sellers. The weekly chart is open to the downside under this angle with the next target angle coming in at 93.88.

We’re going to continue to look for upside pressure this week as long as the US Dollar Index remains over the 50% level at 95.29.

About the Author

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.

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