28 December 2018
Crude Oil Falls on Surprise API Build, Gold Strengthens Despite Stock Market Rebound
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected crude oil inventory build of 6.9 million barrels for the week-ending December 21. Natural gas futures posted another wide trading range on Thursday as investors primarily ignored potentially bearish weather reports, reacting instead to the expiration of the January futures contract. Gold futures closed higher on Thursday despite increased demand for higher risk assets.
Risk Sentiment the Key Driver for the USD, with U.S Stats Unlikely to Help
It looks like another choppy day ahead for the Dollar, with volatility in the equity markets and today’s data likely to weigh.
Bitcoin – Bulls Continue to Struggle, as the Bears Target $3,500
Bitcoin treads water early on in the day, while a number of the majors sit in the red, which could see another sell-off if Bitcoin returns to $3,600 levels.
Nikkei Dives After Bank of Japan Sees Downside Risks to Economy
Traders said the early pressure in the U.S. stock markets was driven by renewed tensions between the United States and China. Early Friday, the Bank of Japan released its summary of opinions from its December monetary policy meeting, where it noted the “heightening” of downside risks to economic activity.
Bitcoin Cash – ABC, Litecoin and Ripple Daily Analysis – 28/12/18
It’s a mixed start to the day for the majors, with Bitcoin Cash ABC struggling, while Litecoin and Ripple’s XRP hold onto minor gains early on.
GBP/USD Price Forecast – GBP Continues Positive Price Action on Broad Based Weaker USD
the spot manages to derive some comfort from broad-based US dollar weakness and a better risk environment on last trading session of the week.
Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Stock Market Rise Underpinning Prices
The price action this week in crude oil has been primarily driven by the volatility in the stock market. This trend is likely to continue today based on the early reaction to the firm stock market. It think the plan should be simple today. If stocks rally then look for crude oil to be support. If stocks weaken then this should take crude oil down.
Trading plan for December 28
Yesterday’s news renewed concerns on the trade war between the US and China. Trump’s administration plans an executive order that would protect US companies from using products made by Chinese firms Huawei Technologies and ZTE
Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Bulls Hoping for Cold Weather to Return Late Next Week
The year is expected to end with stocks about 20% below the five-year average. This means the market will still be sensitive to the return of cold temperatures despite the current downtrend. Continue to expect to see above average volatility especially with the forecasts showing increases chances of colder weather late next week.
Weekly Forex Outlook: December 31-January 4
The first Friday of the month, as usual, will be highlighted with the Non-Farm Payrolls data. Greater than anticipated figures will boost the USD and affect the direction of currencies paired with the US dollar
Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Decision Time After Market Hits Objective Zone at $1284.10 to $1285.70
Given the current set up, the key level to watch the rest of the session is yesterday’s close at $1281.10. Gold is either going to regain strength over this level and make a run at breaking out over $1285.70, or its going to weaken under this level with the possibility of a retracement to $1260.80.
EUR/USD Mid-Session Technical Analysis for December 28, 2018
Based on the early price action, the direction of the EUR/USD the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major 50% level at 1.1447. This is a long-term retracement level.
E-mini S&P 500 Index (ES) Futures Technical Analysis – December 28, 2018 Forecast
Based on the early price action, the direction of the March E-mini S&P 500 Index the rest of the session is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 2503.75.
Bitcoin And Ethereum Daily Price Forecast – BTC & ETH Trade Dovish On News Driven Momentum
Selling by ICO projects increases the downside pressure on ETH market while BTC declined on news of wallet hack.
Are We at the End of the Economic Cycle?
2018 was a rough year for traders, as they faced extremely high market volatility and uncertainty. Worse yet, there are signs that indicate that we’re not going to get any relief next year – in fact, 2019 might be even tougher for traders. Are we at the end of the economic cycle?
AUD/USD Price Forecast – Australian dollar bounces slightly on Friday
The Australian dollar bounced slightly during the trading session on Friday, as the 0.70 level continues to cause a lot of support. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and of course it will attract a lot of order flow.
EUR/USD Price Forecast – Euro runs into a brick wall
The Euro rallied during the trading session on Friday but ran into the massive resistance just above the 1.1450 level and turned around. This is a market that continues to consolidate, and as we are in the last couple of days of trading, it’s difficult to imagine a breakout in the short term.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast – British pound testing major support
The British pound has broken down during the trading session on Friday, slicing through major support, but has found buyers to let the market yet again. We are teetering on a major support level, so it’s very likely that we will get some type of significant move after New Year’s Day.
GBP/USD Price Forecast – British pound continues to face resistance above
The British pound continues to try to break above the 1.27 level but continues to find sellers in that region. Because of this, I anticipate that rallies are going to continue to be faded at these levels.
USD/JPY Price Forecast – US dollar falls against yen again on Friday
The US dollar fell again during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of negativity in this market. The ¥110 level of course causes a bit of support, but eventually I think we do break down through there.
Gold Price Forecast – Gold markets show signs of exhaustion
Gold markets have rallied recently but have also showed signs of exhaustion during Friday. I think that a short-term pullback may come, but we have recently broken above this up trending channel, and the weekly candle stick is of course very bullish. Because of this, I think eventually the buyers will win the argument.
Natural Gas Price Forecast -natural gas markets fall on Friday
Natural gas markets broke down a bit during the day on Friday, reaching towards the $3.25 area again. The $3.25 level of course is where we had seen a gap previously, so it should offer a bit of support.
Crude Oil Price Forecast – crude oil markets continue to build possible base
Crude oil markets have chomped around over the last couple of days, and Friday was more of the same as it looks like we may be trying to form a build a bit of a base. Ultimately, this is a market that has fallen extraordinarily low, and I think we are getting at extremes now.
Silver Price Forecast – Silver shows signs of exhaustion on Friday
Silver markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Friday, reaching towards the $15.50 level before pulling back slightly. By doing so, we did of forming a shooting star midday, and it suggests that perhaps there could be a buying opportunity on some type of debt.
S&P 500 Price Forecast – S&P 500 choppy to close the week
The S&P 500 went back and forth during the trading session on Friday, testing the 2500 level. This is an area that of course has a large, round, psychological importance to it, so therefore it’s not surprising that we struggle.
AUD/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Aussie finding support at major level
The Australian dollar has formed a neutral candle stick for the week, finding support at the 0.70 level, an area that of course will attract a lot of attention. Because of this, I believe that the next couple of weeks could be crucial.
EUR/USD Weekly Price Forecast – Euro rallies during the week
The Euro rallied a bit during the week, testing major resistance in the form of the 1.15 handle. If we can break above this level, that would of course be very strong sign but I see a massive amount of resistance above.
GBP/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – British pound testing major support
The British pound is testing major support against the Japanese yen, in the form of the ¥140 level. This is a market that reacts to the global markets overall, and of course the general feeling of risk appetite.
GBP/USD Weekly Price Forecast – British pound facing resistance
The British pound rallied a bit during the week, reaching towards the 1.27 level. That’s an area that has been supported in the past, and it now should be resistance going forward. We have tested that area but look as if we are failing again.
USD/JPY Weekly Price Forecast – US dollar falls again for the week
The US dollar fell again during the week, after initially trying to rally against the Japanese yen. The ¥111.50 level has offered resistance, and now the market has rolled over towards the vital ¥110 level.
Gold Weekly Price Forecast – Gold markets break out above channel
Gold markets rally during the week, breaking through major resistance in the form of the top of an uptrend channel. Because of this, it looks as if we are ready to go higher and I think that we will continue to climb towards the top of the longer-term consolidation area.
Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – natural gas markets continue to roll over
The natural gas markets struggle during the previous week, initially trying to break above the $3.75 level before breaking down to fill the gap at the $3.25 level. This of course is a very bearish turn of events, but we have sold off so rapidly that it’s difficult to sell at this point.
Crude Oil Weekly Price Forecast – crude oil markets form potential bottom
Crude oil markets fell during the week but are closing out the week in a positive tone, forming a bit of a hammer. I think at this point, we may be getting very close to a bottom in this market, and quite frankly that’s not a huge surprise considering how hard we have fallen.
Silver Weekly Price Forecast – Silver markets finally break out
Silver markets finally broke out during the week, slicing through the $15 level like it wasn’t even there. I think at this point, we will continue to go higher and ironically it may or may not have to do with US dollar strength.
S&P 500 Weekly Price Forecast – S&P 500 shows resiliency
The S&P 500 initially dipped much lower during the trading week, reaching as low as the 2300 level. We turned around of form a massive hammer though, which of course is a very bullish sign.
E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index (NQ) Futures Technical Analysis – Trader Reaction to 6358.75 Should Determine Direction into Close
Based on the current price action, the direction of the March E-mini NASDAQ-100 Index into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 6358.75.
E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average (YM) Futures Analysis – Key Level Controlling Direction into Close is 23156
Based on the current price action, the direction of the March E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at 23156.
Crude Oil Price Update – Direction into Close Will Be Determined by Trader Reaction to $44.68 Pivot
Based on the current price at $45.30, the direction of the February WTI crude oil market into the close is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the pivot at $44.68.
Gold Price Futures (GC) Technical Analysis – Buyers Could Take Shot at New High Into Close
Based on the current price at $1282.90, gold is currently in a position to make a run at today’s high at $1284.70, followed by the major 50% level at $1285.70. With the stock market finishing mixed, investors may take a shot at a new high at the close.
Stock Market Rollercoaster Ride Ends with Higher Weekly Close
All three major U.S. indexes posted all-time highs in 2018, however, all are in a position to finish the year lower. This type of dramatic reversal on the yearly charts is pretty rare and is a strong indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current price levels. This type of chart pattern can be indicative of a major top which could lead to a 2 or even 3 year bear market.