Crude Oil Forecast August 14, 2015, Technical Analysis

Light Sweet Crude

The light sweet crude market fell during the course of the day on Thursday, slamming into the vital one $42 region. This is an area that the market bounced from previously, and reached towards the $60 handle after that. In other words, this is going to be very important for the future of this marketplace.

At this point time, we would anticipate some type of bounce, but we are simply going to ignore that as we do not want to go against the overall downtrend. A rally at this point in time should be a selling opportunity as far as we can see, and of course a break down below $42 would also have us selling as we should then reach towards the $40 level. The light sweet crude market is of course oversold at the moment, but quite frankly we just do not see any reason to trying to fight the overall trend that has been so strong.

Brent

Brent markets initially rallied during the course of the day on Thursday, but found way too much in the way of resistance above the $50 handle. By doing so, we ended up forming a relatively negative candle, but at the end of the day we are simply consolidating just below the big figure. With this, we feel that the market will eventually break down a bit, but we don’t have the signal to start selling quite yet.

Any rally at this point in time would be looked at with suspicion, and we would anticipate seeing the $52 level bring in a lot of selling pressure. On top of that, if we can get up to the $55 level, we would also be sellers as well as it shows previous resistance. We have no interest in buying this contract yet, at least not until we get some type of longer-term signal on something to the effect of a hammer on the weekly chart, if not something on the monthly chart. We believe it’s only a matter time before sellers enter every time we rally in the meantime though.