Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental February 25 – March 1, 2013, Forecast

Barry Norman

Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental February 25 – March 1, 2013, Forecast
Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental February 25 – March 1, 2013, Forecast
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

Crude Oil closed the week at 93.33 tumbling from 96.48 the high this past Monday and the 98.00 price range just days before. Crude oil hit a low on Friday of 92.49. Oil prices ended the week with something of a rebound following a week on the back foot. This came amid renewed worries over security in the Middle East, in light of continuing rhetoric over Iran’s nuclear plans. It is reported that Iran has continued to develop a uranium enrichment plant in defiance of international sanctions. And the rise in geopolitical has placed a support under the weakening oil price.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Feb 22, 2013

93.33

93.04

93.47

92.49

0.31%

Feb 21, 2013

93.05

94.64

94.83

92.67

-1.70%

Feb 20, 2013

94.65

97.06

97.48

94.26

-2.50%

Feb 19, 2013

97.08

95.94

97.17

95.81

1.19%

Feb 18, 2013

95.93

96.17

96.48

95.76

-0.25%

Business confidence metrics from Germany also help lift spirits, and added some positivity over Europe’s economic condition. The slight recovery breaks a three day losing streak. At one point this week oil prices shed US$2 in a matter of seconds leaving many traders and market questioning the reason for the sharp drop; speculation has thus far pointed to possible forced selling by a hedge fund or influence of automated or algorithm trading.

The major oil companies have fallen to two-year lows, reflecting, in the broker’s view, a lack of appetite for the sector in a “risk-on” market and also concerns over the sector’s growth prospects.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of February 18-22 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 Feb. 19

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

48.2

35.0

31.5

 

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

42.4

35.5

31.2

Feb. 20

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

1.7%

1.7%

 

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.5%

-0.2%

0.3%

 

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.4%

1.4%

1.5%

 

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

-12.5K

-5.0K

-15.8K

 

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.660%

 

1.560%

 

USD

Building Permits 

0.925M

0.915M

0.909M

 

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

 

USD

Housing Starts 

0.890M

0.925M

0.973M

 

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.4%

-0.3%

 

USD

PPI (YoY) 

1.4%

1.4%

1.3%

 

USD

Core PPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.6%

2.0%

Feb. 21

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

43.6

43.8

42.9

 

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

50.1

50.5

49.8

 

EUR

Manufacturing PMI 

47.8

48.4

47.9

 

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

5.202%

 

5.290%

 

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-14

-15

-20

 

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

0.2%

0.1%

 

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.1%

0.0%

 

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

362K

355K

342K

 

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3148K

3170K

3137K

 

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

1.6%

1.7%

 

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

1.8%

1.9%

 

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.92M

4.90M

4.90M

 

USD

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-12.5

1.0

-5.8

Feb. 22

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

-0.6%

-0.6%

-0.6%

 

EUR

German GDP (YoY) 

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

 

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

107.4

105.0

104.3

 

EUR

German Current Assessment 

110.2

108.5

108.1

 

EUR

German Business Expectations 

104.6

101.3

100.6

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest:   114.81 on May 02, 2011

Average: 89.58 over this period

Lowest:   67.17 on May 25, 2010

 CRUDE OIL  W 0223

WEEKLY

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Feb. 25

01:45

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

 

52.30

 Feb. 26

08:15

CHF

Employment Level 

4.11M

4.12M

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

16

17

 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

61.0

58.6

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales 

385K

369K

Feb. 27

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.8

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.00

1.05

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

-0.3%

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.2%

1.0%

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-3.9%

4.3%

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

1.8%

-4.3%

 Feb. 28

06:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.3%

0.6%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

-5K

-16K

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

-0.5%

 

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.6%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

-0.1%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

54.5

55.6

Mar. 01

01:00

CNY

Chinese Manufacturing PMI 

 

50.40

 

07:00

GBP

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.5%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

52.2

52.5

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.2%

0.2%

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

76.3

76.3

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

52.6

53.1

Upcoming Government Bond

Date Time Country 

Feb 25 10:10 Italy  

Feb 25 10:30 Germany 

Feb 25 11:30 Belgium 

Feb 25 18:00 US 

Feb 26 10:10 Italy  

Feb 26 15:30 UK 

Feb 26 18:00 US 

Feb 27 10:10 Italy  

Feb 27 15:30 Sweden 

Feb 27 18:00 US 

Feb 28 01:30 Japan 

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