Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: Crude Oil closed the week at 93.33 tumbling from 96.48 the high this past Monday and the 98.00 price range just days
Crude Oil closed the week at 93.33 tumbling from 96.48 the high this past Monday and the 98.00 price range just days before. Crude oil hit a low on Friday of 92.49. Oil prices ended the week with something of a rebound following a week on the back foot. This came amid renewed worries over security in the Middle East, in light of continuing rhetoric over Iran’s nuclear plans. It is reported that Iran has continued to develop a uranium enrichment plant in defiance of international sanctions. And the rise in geopolitical has placed a support under the weakening oil price.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Feb 22, 2013 |
93.33 |
93.04 |
93.47 |
92.49 |
0.31% |
Feb 21, 2013 |
93.05 |
94.64 |
94.83 |
92.67 |
-1.70% |
Feb 20, 2013 |
94.65 |
97.06 |
97.48 |
94.26 |
-2.50% |
Feb 19, 2013 |
97.08 |
95.94 |
97.17 |
95.81 |
1.19% |
Feb 18, 2013 |
95.93 |
96.17 |
96.48 |
95.76 |
-0.25% |
Business confidence metrics from Germany also help lift spirits, and added some positivity over Europe’s economic condition. The slight recovery breaks a three day losing streak. At one point this week oil prices shed US$2 in a matter of seconds leaving many traders and market questioning the reason for the sharp drop; speculation has thus far pointed to possible forced selling by a hedge fund or influence of automated or algorithm trading.
The major oil companies have fallen to two-year lows, reflecting, in the broker’s view, a lack of appetite for the sector in a “risk-on” market and also concerns over the sector’s growth prospects.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of February 18-22 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Feb. 19 |
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
48.2 |
35.0 |
31.5 |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
42.4 |
35.5 |
31.2 |
Feb. 20 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
-0.5% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.7% |
1.7% |
1.7% |
|
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
0.3% |
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.4% |
1.4% |
1.5% |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-12.5K |
-5.0K |
-15.8K |
|
EUR |
German 10-Year Bund Auction |
1.660% |
1.560% |
|
|
USD |
Building Permits |
0.925M |
0.915M |
0.909M |
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
Housing Starts |
0.890M |
0.925M |
0.973M |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
0.4% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
1.4% |
1.3% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.6% |
2.0% |
Feb. 21 |
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
43.6 |
43.8 |
42.9 |
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
50.1 |
50.5 |
49.8 |
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
47.8 |
48.4 |
47.9 |
|
EUR |
Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction |
5.202% |
5.290% |
|
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-14 |
-15 |
-20 |
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
362K |
355K |
342K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3148K |
3170K |
3137K |
|
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.8% |
1.9% |
|
USD |
Existing Home Sales |
4.92M |
4.90M |
4.90M |
|
USD |
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index |
-12.5 |
1.0 |
-5.8 |
Feb. 22 |
EUR |
German GDP (QoQ) |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
-0.6% |
|
EUR |
German GDP (YoY) |
0.1% |
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
EUR |
German Ifo Business Climate Index |
107.4 |
105.0 |
104.3 |
|
EUR |
German Current Assessment |
110.2 |
108.5 |
108.1 |
|
EUR |
German Business Expectations |
104.6 |
101.3 |
100.6 |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 114.81 on May 02, 2011
Average: 89.58 over this period
Lowest: 67.17 on May 25, 2010
WEEKLY
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Feb. 25 |
01:45 |
CNY |
52.30 |
||
Feb. 26 |
08:15 |
CHF |
4.11M |
4.12M |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
16 |
17 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
61.0 |
58.6 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
385K |
369K |
|
Feb. 27 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.8 |
|
|
08:00 |
CHF |
1.00 |
1.05 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
1.0% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-3.9% |
4.3% |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
1.8% |
-4.3% |
|
Feb. 28 |
06:45 |
CHF |
-0.3% |
0.6% |
|
|
07:45 |
EUR |
-0.2% |
||
|
08:55 |
EUR |
-5K |
-16K |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
1.5% |
||
|
13:00 |
EUR |
0.7% |
-0.5% |
|
|
13:00 |
EUR |
1.6% |
1.7% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
54.5 |
55.6 |
|
Mar. 01 |
01:00 |
CNY |
50.40 |
||
|
07:00 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
08:30 |
CHF |
52.2 |
52.5 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
76.3 |
76.3 |
|
|
15:00 |
USD |
52.6 |
53.1 |
Upcoming Government Bond
Date Time Country
Feb 25 10:10 Italy
Feb 25 10:30 Germany
Feb 25 11:30 Belgium
Feb 25 18:00 US
Feb 26 10:10 Italy
Feb 26 15:30 UK
Feb 26 18:00 US
Feb 27 10:10 Italy
Feb 27 15:30 Sweden
Feb 27 18:00 US
Feb 28 01:30 Japan