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EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Aug 4, 2015, 09:50 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The EUR/USD was directionless today with little on the economics calendar and little in the way of headlines as traders were

EUR/USD

EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 - Forecast
EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 5, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

The EUR/USD was directionless today with little on the economics calendar and little in the way of headlines as traders were focused on the commodities weakness. The euro is trading at 109.77 moving between gains and losses. The euro was under pressure on Tuesday following a sell-off in New York as a plunge on the Greek stock market revived worries about Athens’ future in the eurozone.

On Monday, Greece’s stock exchange, resuming trade after a five-week shutdown, plunged around 20 percent at the open before finishing down 16.23 percent in its biggest single-day drop ever.

Adding to broader regional concerns, the 19-nation Eurozone’s inflation and jobless rate came in flat in July, according to data published on Friday, suggesting only modest growth.

After disappointing U.S. employment-cost data Friday cast doubts on a scenario for a September rate increase by the Federal Reserve, investors are sticking to their wait-and-see stance until the release of highly anticipated jobs data for July.

“We expect U.S. jobs data later this week…and that’s the key,” said Akira Moroga, manager of forex products group at Aozora Bank. Solid U.S. employment is considered a factor that could allow the Fed to raise rates in September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)

0.7%

0.5%

0.4%

   

  AUD

 

Trade Balance (Jun)

-2.933B

-3.100B

-2.677B

   

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Aug)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Jul)

3.5%

3.5%

3.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Jul)

0.4%

0.4%

-0.2%

 

 

  EUR

 

Spanish Unemployment Change

-74.0K

-45.6K

-94.7K

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Jul)

57.1

58.4

58.1

   

 

EURUSD(60 minutes)20150804062242

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  GBP

 

Services PMI (Jul)

 

58.0

58.5

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

215K

237K

 

 

  USD

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jul)

 

56.2

56.0

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 05 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Oct 2020

Aug 05 11:30 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 06 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos

Aug 06 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Aug 10 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 13 Aug

Aug 11 11:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2058 I/L Gilt

Aug 12 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Aug 2025 Bund

Aug 13 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

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