GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Aug 11, 2015, 11:39 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD dipped 9 points as the US dollar remained in the green. There was limited responses to the BRC retail sales

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 12, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD dipped 9 points as the US dollar remained in the green. There was limited responses to the BRC retail sales monitor printed early this morning showing a jump in retail sales. The pound is trading at 1.5583. A heatwave at the start of July prompted shoppers to splash out on updating their summer wardrobes, but sunny enthusiasm was rained off later in the month with consumers choosing to hunker down with takeaways instead. The British Retail Consortium, an industry body, said retail spending increased by 2.2 percent year-on-year last month — near its long-run average — after rising 2.9 percent in June.

As a result, total retail sales rose by 2.2pc in July, compared with a 1.3pc increase for the same month last year, according to figures by the BRC and KPMG.

The retail sales were an improvement on May, when like-for-like sales remained flat despite an overall 1.1pc lift, but failed to match up to June’s 2.8pc total sales increase, which had been bolstered by a noticeable uptick in big-ticket purchases such as sofas and fridge freezers.

The sales figures also revealed that online and bricks and mortar stores were making an equal contribution to sales growth as a result of the popularity of click and collect services.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jul)	1.2%	1.0%	1.8%
CNY	New Loans	1,480.0B	725.0B	1,280.0B
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jul)	4	11	8
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions	65.7	64.3	63.9
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	25.0	32.0	29.7
EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	47.6	43.9	42.7

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock			-2.400M
JPY	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
AUD	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)		0.6%	0.5%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		0.8%	0.8%
JPY	Tertiary Industry Activity Index		0.1%	-0.7%
CNY	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)		11.5%	11.4%
CNY	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)		6.6%	6.8%
GBP	Claimant Count Change (Jul)		1.5K	7.0K
GBP	Unemployment Rate (Jun)		5.6%	5.6%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)		-0.2%	-0.4%
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Jun)		5.300M	5.363M
USD	Crude Oil Inventories			-4.407M
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jul)		-132.0B	51.8B