Introduction: Natural gas is nevertheless a major commodity in its own right, which is used for everything from cooking food to heating houses during the
Do not miss the weekly U.S. gas inventories report. The figures are issued by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) every Thursday afternoon at 15:30 (released Friday at 15:30 if there was a U.S. bank holiday on Monday). Here’s a link to the latest EIA report. The main natural gas moving figure in there is the change in inventories from the previous week. When it comes to the gas inventories report, we’re talking about billions of cubic feet, Bcf for short.
When the actual change in inventories number is released, it is the deviation from the expected number that is really important. If the actual inventories figure shows a 24 Bcf rise when an 84 Bcf increase was expected, then that is actually positive for the price of natural gas. All else equal, the price of natural gas should rise after the release.
A barrel of oil has roughly 6 times the energy content of natural gas. If the fuels were perfect substitutes, oil prices would tend to be about 6 times natural gas prices. However, due to various market characteristics discussed briefly above and the ease of using oil, the price of oil has been following a pattern of 8-12 times that of natural gas. However that ratio has spiked dramatically since March 2009.
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
Natural Gas tumbled all week as investors turned their backs on the commodity, which was just a week ago trading at recent highs of 3.9999. This week fell to a low of 3.263 to close at 3.30. Global forecast for this year had set price range for NG around 3.32, investors just a few months ago pushed NG to below the 3.00 price range and then pushed it to record highs and then dumped it for profit.
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
Dec 14, 2012 |
3.300 |
3.349 |
3.362 |
3.263 |
-1.43% |
Dec 13, 2012 |
3.349 |
3.401 |
3.406 |
3.293 |
-1.57% |
Dec 12, 2012 |
3.402 |
3.414 |
3.446 |
3.366 |
-0.40% |
Dec 11, 2012 |
3.416 |
3.430 |
3.493 |
3.393 |
-0.44% |
Dec 10, 2012 |
3.430 |
3.489 |
3.503 |
3.416 |
-1.69% |
The appeal of natural gas above the 3.00 price range becomes less attractive and producers need a price over 3.00 to produce gas profitably, leaving a small window for gas prices to vary, expect speculators have been taking advantage and talked up prices just to dump the commodity as oil is trading in low ranges as energy speculators jump from one to the other in hopes of pushing prices up or down.
With weather within seasonal norms there is not outside demand for natural gas at this time as production increases gas producers are hoping to get approval to export more gas to the global markets.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 10 |
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
19.60B |
25.70B |
32.00B |
Dec. 11 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-9% |
-7% |
-7% |
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
6.9 |
-12.0 |
-15.7 |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
7.6 |
0.1 |
-2.6 |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.2B |
-42.6B |
-40.3B |
Dec. 12 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.8% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-3.0K |
7.0K |
6.0K |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.4% |
0.2% |
-2.3% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.9% |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
1.652% |
1.675% |
|
|
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-172.1B |
-150.0B |
-120.0B |
Dec. 13 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
CHF |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-12 |
-16 |
-21 |
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.8% |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
343K |
370K |
372K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3198K |
3210K |
3221K |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.8% |
2.3% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
Dec. 14 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.90 |
50.50 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
45.0 |
44.5 |
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
47.2 |
46.8 |
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
46.6 |
46.2 |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
EUR |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
|
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.1% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
|
ARS |
Argentinian CPI (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 17 |
13:30 |
USD |
-1.0 |
-5.2 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
3.3B |
||
Dec. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-103.5B |
-117.4B |
|
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
25 |
33 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.870M |
0.894M |
|
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
0.6% |
|
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
Major Economic Events for the week of December 10-14 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 10 |
CNY |
Chinese Trade Balance |
19.60B |
25.70B |
32.00B |
Dec. 11 |
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-9% |
-7% |
-7% |
|
EUR |
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
-0.3% |
|
EUR |
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
6.9 |
-12.0 |
-15.7 |
|
EUR |
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
7.6 |
0.1 |
-2.6 |
|
USD |
Trade Balance |
-42.2B |
-42.6B |
-40.3B |
Dec. 12 |
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |
|
EUR |
German CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
|
EUR |
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.8% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
|
GBP |
Claimant Count Change |
-3.0K |
7.0K |
6.0K |
|
EUR |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-1.4% |
0.2% |
-2.3% |
|
USD |
Import Price Index (MoM) |
-0.9% |
-0.5% |
0.3% |
|
USD |
10-Year Note Auction |
1.652% |
1.675% |
|
|
USD |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
0.25% |
0.25% |
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-172.1B |
-150.0B |
-120.0B |
Dec. 13 |
CHF |
PPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.3% |
-0.1% |
|
CHF |
Interest Rate Decision |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
|
GBP |
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-12 |
-16 |
-21 |
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.0% |
-0.1% |
0.0% |
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) |
-0.8% |
-0.5% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.3% |
0.5% |
-0.3% |
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
343K |
370K |
372K |
|
USD |
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3198K |
3210K |
3221K |
|
USD |
PPI (YoY) |
1.5% |
1.8% |
2.3% |
|
USD |
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.1% |
Dec. 14 |
CNY |
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI |
50.90 |
50.50 |
|
|
EUR |
French Manufacturing PMI |
44.6 |
45.0 |
44.5 |
|
EUR |
German Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
47.2 |
46.8 |
|
EUR |
Manufacturing PMI |
46.3 |
46.6 |
46.2 |
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) |
2.2% |
2.2% |
2.2% |
|
EUR |
Employment Change (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
1.5% |
1.5% |
|
USD |
Core CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
0.2% |
0.2% |
|
USD |
CPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
|
USD |
CPI (YoY) |
1.8% |
1.9% |
2.2% |
|
USD |
Core CPI (YoY) |
1.9% |
2.0% |
2.0% |
|
USD |
Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.1% |
0.3% |
-0.7% |
|
ARS |
Argentinian CPI (MoM) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
Historical: From 2010 to Present
Highest: 6.106 on Jan 07, 2010
Average: 3.836 over this period
Lowest: 1.903 on April 19, 2012
Economic Events: (GMT)
WEEKLY
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
Dec. 17 |
13:30 |
USD |
-1.0 |
-5.2 |
|
|
14:00 |
USD |
3.3B |
||
Dec. 18 |
09:30 |
GBP |
2.6% |
2.7% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
0.4% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
0.2% |
0.5% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.5% |
0.1% |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
-103.5B |
-117.4B |
|
Dec. 19 |
09:00 |
EUR |
102.0 |
101.4 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
108.0 |
108.1 |
|
|
09:00 |
EUR |
96.3 |
95.2 |
|
|
11:00 |
GBP |
25 |
33 |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.875M |
0.868M |
|
|
13:30 |
USD |
0.870M |
0.894M |
|
Dec. 20 |
09:30 |
GBP |
0.3% |
-0.8% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.5% |
0.6% |
|
Dec. 21 |
07:00 |
EUR |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-14.0B |
-20.8B |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
1.0% |
1.0% |
|
|
09:30 |
GBP |
-0.1% |
-0.1% |