NZD/USD Fundamental Analysis – August 27, 2015- Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The NZD/USD  gained 22 points to trade at 0.6496 getting support from the massive insurgence of liquidity from the PBOC announced yesterday. This morning’s trade balance numbers also were better than expected. The trade deficit narrowed to $649 million in July from $943 million a year earlier, and was smaller than the $755 million shortfall predicted in a Reuters poll of economists. Exports climbed 14 percent to $4.2 billion from a year earlier, underpinned by a 24 percent gain in foreign meat sales and a 51 percent jump in fruit exports. Imports were up 4.8 percent to $4.85 billion. On an annual basis, the trade deficit was $2.69 billion, ahead of the forecast $2.66 billion.

New Zealand’s export sector has been weighed on by tumbling global milk prices, which have sapped returns for local producers. Dairy is New Zealand’s biggest commodity export, and international sales of milk powder, butter and cheese edged up 0.1 percent to $932 million in July from a year earlier, for an annual drop of 24 percent.

New Zealand may fill its annual beef export quota to the US for the first time in 11 years as farmers cull more stock to cash in on record beef prices amid a shortage in America. Beef exports to the US rose 7.6 percent to 14,724 tonnes in July, from the year earlier month, according to data released by Statistics New Zealand today. That takes US beef export volume for the first seven months of this year to 164,493 tonnes, compared with 141,973 tonnes at the same time last year, and suggests New Zealand may reach its US annual quota of 213,402 tonnes for the first time since 2004.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

 

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 25 00:00 UK Announces details of Jan 2021 gilt

Aug 25 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 28 Aug

Aug 25 19:00 US Holds 2-year note auction

Aug 26 11:10 Italy Eur 3bn 0.15% Aug 2017 CTZ

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year FRN note auction

Aug 26 12:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 5-year note auction

Aug 26 19:00 US Holds 2-year FRN auction

Aug 27 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.5bn 0.125% I/L Jun 2019, Sek 0.5bn 1% Jun 2025 bonds

Aug 27 19:00 US Holds 7-year note auction

Aug 28 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

Sep 01 11:15 Austria Holds RAGB bond sale

Sep 01 00:00 UK Announces details of 3.5% 2045 Gilt

Sep 02 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Sep 02 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0.25% Oct 2020 Bobl

Sep 02 11:30 UK Auctions new Jan 2021 Gilt

Sep 03 10:30 Spain Auctions Bonos/Obligaciones

Sep 03 11:10 France Auctions OATs

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 3yr note on 08 Sep, 10yr note on 09 Sep

Sep 03 00:00 US Announces details of 10-year note on 09 Sep