Bitcoin rose 25% in August and the argument since has been whether the $3.5 billion that went into the spot ETFs was cause or coincidence. I measured the coefficient, and had it backwards for a day before my own reversal test corrected me. Below: what a dollar of ETF money is worth, why a number that works is still no use on a Tuesday, and where it sits into the Fed.
I Tracked Bitcoin ETF Flows: Here’s What They Signal
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Key Points:
- Across all 170 sessions of 2026 on the Farside Investors tape, a $100 million day of net US spot-ETF creation moves Bitcoin 53.7 basis points.
- The impact does not reverse. Twenty sessions after a top-decile creation day Bitcoin is flat to slightly higher, not back where it started.
- My call: Bitcoin holds $77,000 to $81,500 into the 15-16 September FOMC.
