Palladium lost 3.61% on 8 September while platinum gave up 0.66%, widening the gap between them to $469.60. Johnson Matthey’s May report has palladium in surplus for the first time since 2011. I read the same table and get a different story. Below, I take the 630 koz swing apart, and 497 koz of it is investment demand. My call is that $1,150 holds.
Palladium Price Analysis: Can $1,150 Hold as Investors Exit the Market?
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Palladium’s first projected surplus since 2011 may seem bearish, but 79% of the shift comes from reversible investment flows even as total supply is falling. With speculators short twice the forecast surplus, $1,150 could hold through year-end and set up a retest of $1,487.75.