Analysis and Recommendations: The USD/CAD soared 68 points to reach 1.1365 its highest level of the year as oil prices continued to fall as well as gold
The USD/CAD soared 68 points to reach 1.1365 its highest level of the year as oil prices continued to fall as well as gold leaving the CAD in a bad place. The US dollar continued to gather momentum on hopes that the US recovery is remaining at full speed. The Canadian dollar’s drop to a five-year low stood out in the European session. The U.S. dollar hit a high of C$1.1352 , up 0.6 percent and its highest level since mid-July 2009.
Traders said the renewed weakness in the Canadian dollar has been triggered by the ongoing selloff in the crude oil market, where prices have fallen below $90 a barrel.
“Clearly the correlation between oil and commodity prices on the Canadian dollar is playing out. The more oil prices fall, the more dollar/CAD will rise,” said Jeremy Stretch, head of currency strategy, CIBC World Markets, a Canadian bank.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Today’s economic releases actual vs. forecast:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
AUD |
Consumer Sentiment |
0.9% |
|
-4.6% |
|
|
|
CNY |
CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
0.5% |
0.4% |
0.2% |
|
|
|
CNY |
CPI (YoY) (Sep) |
1.6% |
1.7% |
2.0% |
|
|
|
CNY |
PPI (YoY) (Sep) |
-1.8% |
-1.6% |
-1.2% |
|
|
|
JPY |
Industrial Production |
-1.9% |
-1.5% |
-1.5% |
|
|
|
EUR |
German CPI (MoM) |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi |
|
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
Average Earnings Index |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
GBP |
Claimant Count |
-18.6K |
-35.0K |
-33.2K |
||
|
GBP |
Unemployment Rate |
6.0% |
6.1% |
6.2% |
|
|
|
USD |
Core PPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
Core Retail Sales |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
NY Empire State |
|
20.50 |
27.54 |
|
|
|
USD |
PPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
|
USD |
Retail Sales (MoM) |
|
-0.1% |
0.6% |
|
|
|
USD |
Business Inventories |
|
0.4% |
0.4% |
|
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget |
|
80.9B |
-129.0B |
|
|
|
USD |
Beige Book |
|
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
ECB President Draghi |
Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:
Cur. |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|||
|
NZD |
Business NZ PMI (Sep) |
|
|
56.5 |
|
|
|
EUR |
Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) |
|
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
|
|
EUR |
CPI (MoM) (Sep) |
|
0.4% |
0.1% |
|
|
|
EUR |
CPI (YoY) (Sep) |
|
0.3% |
0.3% |
|
|
|
USD |
Initial Jobless Claims |
|
290K |
287K |
|
|
|
CAD |
Manufacturing Sales |
|
-1.6% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
USD |
Industrial Production |
|
0.4% |
-0.1% |
|
|
|
USD |
Phil Fed Manufacturing |
|
20.0 |
22.5 |
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country Auction
Oct 14 08:30 Spain 6 & 12M T-bill auction
Oct 14 09:30 Belgium 3 & 12M T-bill auction (Jan & Oct 2015)
Oct 15 09:03 Sweden Bond auction
Oct 15 09:30 Germany Eur 4.0bn Sep 2016 Schatz auction
Oct 16 08:30 Spain Bono/Obligacion auction
Oct 16 09:30 UK Auctions 0.125% 2024 I/L Gilt
Oct 16 15:00 US Announces details of 30Y TIPS auction on Oct 23