USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

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Published: Nov 16, 2015, 05:06 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The USD/JPY tumbled by 12 points to 122.48 as traders turned to the yen as a safe haven after the weekend’s terrorist attack

USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis – November 17, 2015 – Forecast

Analysis and Recommendation:

The USD/JPY tumbled by 12 points to 122.48 as traders turned to the yen as a safe haven after the weekend’s terrorist attack in Paris. Speculators moved immediately into global safe havens including the US dollar and gold. The markets paid very little attention to the release of Japanese GDP figures which were well below forecast and should prompt the Bank of Japan to add stimulus at Friday’s meeting.

Japan’s economy slid back into recession in July-September as uncertainty over the overseas outlook hurt business investment, putting policymakers under growing pressure to deploy new stimulus measures to support a fragile recovery.

Many analysts expect the economy to grow only moderately in the current quarter as companies remain hesitant to use their record profits for wage hikes, underscoring the challenges premier Shinzo Abe faces in pulling Japan sustainably out of stagnation with his “Abenomics” stimulus policies.

The world’s third-largest economy shrank an annualized 0.8 percent in July-September, more than a median market forecast for a 0.2 percent contraction, government data showed on Monday.

Japanese officials are considering an additional budget for the current fiscal year, which ends March 2016. With the GDP figure out, concrete work on the plan is likely to begin. Less certain is the prospect for further easing by the Bank of Japan. The stronger export numbers in the latest GDP data should bolster the BOJ’s case that its easing so far is working.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Imp.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD		Core Retail Sales (QoQ)	1.0%	1.4%	0.0%
NZD		Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)	1.6%	1.3%	0.1%
JPY		GDP (YoY) (Q3)	-0.8%	-0.2%	-1.2%
JPY		GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
GBP	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.1%
GBP	CPI (YoY) (Oct)		-0.1%	-0.1%
GBP	PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	0.6%
EUR	German ZEW Current Conditions		55.5	55.2
EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment		6.0	1.9
USD	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)		1.9%	1.9%
USD	Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	0.2%
USD	CPI (MoM) (Oct)		0.2%	-0.2%
USD	Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)		0.1%	-0.2%