Forecasts & Analysis | Fundamental, Page

Silver remains steady, just below the $17.00 level. We could see some movement later in the day, with the release of retail sales reports at 13:30 GMT.

The Australian and New Zealand currencies have settled down on Friday after considerable losses a day earlier. The Chinese yuan has posted small gains against the U.S. dollar.

Jobless claims rise to a 3-month high

Natural gas prices whipsawed initially moving average on Thursday, following a smaller than expected build in natural gas inventories reported on Thursday by the Department of Energy. The weather is expected to become warmer than normal over the next 6-10 and 8-14 days, but over the next 5-days the weather

Short term momentum remains positive

GBP/USD has posted slight gains, shrugging off a weak U.K. retail sales report. EUR/GBP and USD/CAD are showing little movement.

Crude oil is steady, as West Texas Intermediate is trading around the $57 level. Investors are keeping an eye on EIA crude inventories, which will be released at 16:00 GMT.

Silver has moved slightly higher on Thursday and is currently at the $17.00 level, which has remained relevant throughout the week.

The British pound continues to trade within a narrow range against the dollar but trades near a fairly important resistance area.

Gold is expected to continue to inch higher on short-covering as long as there is tension between the U.S. and China. Gold could spike higher if those tensions escalate. However, if there is a breakthrough in the negotiations then gold could plunge, retesting lows from earlier in the week.

EUR/USD continues to see buyers around the 1.10 area but is mostly trading in a range. Meanwhile, GDP growth in Germany rose slightly to save the country from going into a technical recession.

The key market driver on Thursday is the prediction by an OPEC official about lower-than-expected U.S. shale production growth in 2020. However, this is stark contrast with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday that U.S. oil production is on course to hit new records this year

The Australian dollar has lost ground after disappointing employment numbers. The New Zealand dollar and Chinese yuan are showing limited movement.

Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is reporting that a survey of responses as of Wednesday showed expectations clustering around a range between minus 9 Bcf and plus 9 Bcf.

The Japanese Yen hardly budged after Japan’s GDP data showed the economy grew an annualized 0.2% in July-September, much below economists’ forecast of 0.8%. This is because investors are focused on the lack of progress over a trade deal, and the Japanese Yen’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

The selling pressure on the Aussie and Kiwi is likely to continue on Thursday unless there is a positive development over the trade deal. Even if that is the case, the move is likely to be fueled by short-covering rather than new buying.

CPI rises more than expected

Production remains flat

China rethinks its Ag purchases

It has been a very quiet Wednesday session. The Canadian dollar and British pound are flat, and EUR/GBP is also trading sideways. Stronger inflation numbers in the U.S. failed to cause any reaction in the curency markets.