Forecasts & Analysis | Fundamental

The three major stock U.S. stock indexes closed lower on Thursday as investors continued to digest yesterday’s Fed activity. On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced it will begin reducing its $4.5 trillion balance sheet starting in October. The central bank left its benchmark interest rate at

Crude oil prices continued to climb on Thursday buoyed by Wednesday larger than expected draw in petroleum inventories reported by the Department of Energy.  Inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, have dropped to the lower end of the 5-year range, ahead of fall in the U.S. and Europe.  Traders will need … Continue reading Crude Oil Price Analysis for September 22, 2017

The EUR/USD rebounded slightly on Thursday following a solid decline on Wednesday following the Fed’s decision to begin QT. The Fed announced its balance sheet runoff which will begin in October and left interest rates unchanged. Though FOMC participants looked past the near-term disruption effects of the 3-category-4 hurricanes that have hit the U.S., they … Continue reading EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for September 22, 2017

Natural gas prices retreated on Wednesday amid concerns over production increases and forecasts for less cooling demand next week. November natural gas futures settled at $3.141, down 0.034 or -1.07%. According to Thomson Reuters, U.S. gas consumption is expected to slide to 71.7 billion cubic feet per day next week from 72.5 bcfd this week. … Continue reading Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – EIA Report May Show Bigger-Than-Usual 87 BCF Build

Gold futures are stabilizing early Thursday after yesterday’s steep sell-off. Wednesday’s price action was fueled by a hawkish Fed monetary policy statement which drove the market to a three week low. Federal Reserve comments drove up U.S. Treasury yields, making the U.S. Dollar a more attractive investment while curbing demand for the precious metal. On … Continue reading Price of Gold Fundamental Daily Forecast – Prices Plunge as Chances of December Fed Rate Hike Jumps to 73 Percent

Gold The gold market gained some strength from the lower levels on Wednesday’s session as the market was waiting for the outcome of Fed’s meeting. Now, the Fed has indicated to start the shrinking of its huge balance sheet early, the gold price will probably fall. It has strong support near the $1300 level and … Continue reading Commodities Daily Forecast – September 21, 2017

EUR/USD The pair was mostly sideways through the day on Wednesday hovering around the 1.20 level. The pair is going through a lot of news and resistance in this area. If the pair breaks above the 1.20 handle, then it will be very positive for the market and will eventually move towards 1.25 handle. With economic … Continue reading EUR/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY Daily Outlook – September 21, 2017

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil futures closed higher on Wednesday, despite a government report showing a rise in U.S. crude inventories after the Iraqi oil minister said OPEC and its non-OPEC oil producing partners were considering extending or deepening output cuts. November WTI crude oil futures settled at $50.73, up $0.83 … Continue reading Oil Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – With U.S. Production Rising, Crude Needs an OPEC Extension to Sustain Rally

The USDCAD pair continued its bounce, something which it has been doing since the beginning of the week. We had warned in our forecasts over the last few days that the pair is likely to continue its bounce as the dollar recovers across the board and that we are seeing signs of bullish consolidation which … Continue reading USD/CAD Daily Fundamental Forecast – September 21, 2017

The DAX index finally found some life in its final hours of trading as the FOMC and the Fed seems to have galvanised the DAX bulls into action and they then did the needful by pushing the index through the 12600 region and this kind of bullishness is likely to continue when the market opens … Continue reading DAX Index Daily Fundamental Forecast – September 21, 2017

A couple of days back, we had said that we should be expecting a breakout in the bitcoin prices and that day would be crucial for that. We had based this comment considering the volatility that we have come to expect in these markets over the last few months. Little did we expect that 3 … Continue reading Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Forecast – Consolidation Continues, Breakout Imminent

The GBPUSD pair had a highly volatile and choppy day of trading yesterday which was expected, as there were important news events lined up in the UK as well as the US yesterday. It was a difficult day of trading for the traders as they had to deal with two way action that was based … Continue reading GBP/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – September 21, 2017

The pair crashed lower yesterday on the back of the hawkish Fed and this is what we had warned in our forecast yesterday. The pair is now back in the lows of its range and it looks pretty weak in the face of a recovering dollar which received a boost from the Fed yesterday. We … Continue reading EUR/USD Daily Fundamental Forecast – September 21, 2017

The major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve indicated another rate hike was still possible before the end of the year and that it would begin the reducing of its balance sheet next month. In the cash market, the benchmark S&P 500 Index settled at 2508.24, up 1.59 or … Continue reading S&P 500; US Indexes Fundamental Daily Forecast – Hawkish Fed Drives Bank Stocks Higher

The Dollar/Yen surged on Wednesday, hitting its highest level since July 18 after the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled it may raise interest rates for a third time this year even as inflation has remained below its 2-percent goal. The USD/JPY settled at 112.169, up 0.580 or +0.52%. The Fed also said it will begin reduction … Continue reading USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – BOJ on Tap, but Investors Still Focused on Fed

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars posted solid gains early in the session in reaction to domestic news, put prices retreated after the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at another interest rate hike. On Wednesday, the AUD/USD settled at .8030, up 0.0022 or +0.27% and the NZD/USD closed at .7355, up 0.0039 or +0.53%. The Aussie … Continue reading AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – Look for a Two-sided Trade with Investors Dealing with Fed, Domestic Data

The EUR/USD moved lower on Wednesday following the Federal Research report where the central bank left interest rates unchanged.  The Fed announced that they would move forward with quantitative tightening which would amount to approximately 600 billion in reduction in the balance sheet each year moving forward. The FOMC signaled that another rate hike is … Continue reading EUR/USD Daily Technical Analysis for September 21, 2017

The Dollar/Yen is trading slightly lower shortly before the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision, monetary policy statement and economic projections at 1800 GMT. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is also expected to hold a press conference. At 1749 GMT, the USD/JPY is trading 111.425, down 0.164 or -0.15%. Fed policymakers are … Continue reading USD/JPY Fundamental Daily Forecast – Positive Trade Balance: Japanese Imports Strong, but Exports were Stronger

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are trading sharply higher shortly before the release of the Federal Open Market Committee’s interest rate decision, monetary policy statement and economic projections. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is also scheduled to hold a press conference. At 1721 GMT, the AUD/USD is trading .8076, up 0.0068 or +0.85% and the … Continue reading AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Daily Forecast – NZD/USD Surges to 6 1/2 Week High as National Party pulls ahead of Labour Party

Crude oil prices are breaking out to fresh highs, as larger than expected draws in distillates which include diesel and heating oil helped the petroleum complex surge higher.  Distillates are now below the 5-year average range and ahead of winter could continue to drive petroleum prices higher.  The EIA reported a robust demand for distillates, … Continue reading Crude Oil Price Analysis for September 21, 2017