Forecasts & Analysis | Fundamental, Page

The week will start with the Aussie and Kiwi under a cloud of uncertainty due to the lack of clarity over the U.S.-China trade deal. If Friday’s price behavior is any indication, the currencies could open lower and stay lower most of the week unless the trade deal worries are

Gold prices could pick up some support this week if investors continue to remain cautious about the trade deal between the United States and China. Gold could also get a boost on the back of uncertainties surrounding the U.S. political outlook. Gold traders should also pay attention to the price

On paper, the trade deal is a positive event, but there are problems with the details that could encourage investors to book profits after the current prolonged rally. The overall market is viewing the event as positive, but the price action on Friday suggested it may have already been priced

This week, however, the focus for Dollar/Yen traders will remain on U.S.-China trade relations. The lack of details on Beijing’s purchase of U.S. agricultural is one factor making investors nervous and this could curtail demand for risky assets. Another is the rollback of the U.S. tariffs.

Markets are in risk-on mood as there is a bunch of risks being taken off the table and green shoots are popping up in some key markets. We look at China and the USA going into 2020 in this last analysis of the year.

December 15 is an important deadline: on this date, the US authorities scheduled to impose the new tariffs on Chinese goods.

Heading into the weekend, the forecast was bearish with traders primarily focusing on the milder trending December 20-26 time period. However, significant shifts are still possible over the weekend, which means traders should be prepared for a gap opening in either direction on Monday.

Trade deal helped buoy equities

gold prices remain rangebound

We’re expecting heightened volatility on Friday since I believe we’re still in a news driven market. Furthermore, Trump still has to approve the trade deal, and officially announce a delay in the new tariffs scheduled for December 15.

Crude oil prices continue to head higher, with gains of over 1 percent on Friday. I expect crude to continue to move upwards and to breach the symbolic $60.00 shortly.

The U.S. Dollar has plunged against a basket of currencies this week as investors reacted to three major events:  the Federal Reserve policy statement, the U.S-China trade deal and the outcome of the U.K. elections. A weaker U.S. Dollar tends to make dollar-denominated crude oil more attractive to foreign buyers.

Obviously something changed in the forecasts overnight that triggered a selling response from some major players. Since the European model had been adding heating degree days the past two session, my best guess is that it reintroduced warmer temperatures into the picture.

GBP/USD surged on Thursday after it became clear that Johnson was going to get his majority. The pair has eased back from highs but is likely to remain bid.

Silver prices are a whisker under the symbolic $17.00 level, as the metal continues to grind out slow-but-steady gains this week. The U.S. and China have reached a limited agreement in principle, which could put a cap on silver gains.

Forward progress in two major events shook up the markets on Thursday, leading to a jump higher in EUR/USD to test the 50 WMA for the first time since June.

Boris Johnson has led the Conservatives to a landslide election victory, and the British pound has climbed over 2 percent, as the markets cheered the results. The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal in principle, and the Australian dollar and Chinese yuan responded with sharp gains.

Jobless Claims Soar

Short term momentum has turned positive

US yield rise removing some of the safe-haven bid