Germany faces deep recession if Russian gas supplies are cut – economist

BERLIN (Reuters) – A halt to Russian gas supplies to Germany would trigger a deep recession and cost half a million jobs, a senior economist said in an interview published on Tuesday, as Europe’s biggest economy tries to cut Russian energy imports.

Achim Truger, a member of Germany’s Council of Economic Experts, said German industry a could suffer serious damage in the long term if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides to cut gas exports to Germany.

“By most calculations, an end to gas supplies from Russia would trigger a deep recession. Half a million jobs could be lost,” daily newspaper Rheinische Post quoted Truger as saying.

Last month, Russia’s Gazprom cut Poland and Bulgaria off from its gas for refusing to pay in roubles, and threatened to do the same to others, raising fears that it could take similar action against Germany.

Russian gas accounted for 55% of Germany’s imports last year, and Berlin has come under pressure to unwind a business relationship that critics says is helping to fund Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Truger also said it would take a long time for inflation in Germany to fall again.

“Excessive inflation will continue well into 2023,” he said.

German inflation hit its highest level in more than four decades in April, pushed higher by a spike in the price of natural gas and mineral oil products since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

(Reporting by Riham Alkousaa; Editing by Maria Sheahan)