Peloton to report lower cash burn on bumpy road to turnaround

By Abhijith Ganapavaram and Kannaki Deka

(Reuters) -Peloton Interactive Inc’s effort to cut costs in the latest quarter may have helped the fitness equipment maker burn less cash, but that only means one less hurdle on its road to turnaround, analysts say.

The company, once a pandemic darling, is seeing a slump in demand from fitness-conscious customers as they resume normal routines after being kept indoors during the health crisis.

“Peloton is making progress reducing costs, its cash burn, and its inventory position. However, demand remains a problem, with few new subscribers expected this quarter and in the calendar first half of 2023,” Telsey Advisory Group analysts said in a note.

For the second quarter, Peloton is expected to report a smaller cash burn of $102 million, compared with $546.7 million a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data.

The company has set a target of achieving breakeven cash flow in the second half of fiscal 2023, although it expects challenging macroeconomic conditions to affect the goal.

The context

Peloton was all the rage among fitness enthusiasts during COVID-19 lockdowns, but the company has struggled to cope with a sudden change in trend as fitness-conscious people move back to gyms instead of working out from homes.

Chief Executive Barry McCarthy has embarked on a wide range of cost-cutting measures since taking the job early last year to steer the company toward growth.

“We expect FCF loss to step down through the year & approach breakeven in the second half,” JP Morgan analysts said.

The fundamentals

** Peloton, which is due to report second-quarter results on Feb. 1, is expected to post a 37.4% drop in revenue to $710.45 million from a year earlier, according to the mean estimate from 25 analysts, based on Refinitiv data.

** Adjusted loss per share is estimated at 64 cents. Last year, Peloton reported an adjusted loss of $1.36 per share.

Wall street sentiment

** 13 of 31 brokerages rate the stock “buy” or higher, 16 “hold” and 2 “sell”

** The median price target is $12.50; PT on the stock as of Jan. 30 is $12.64

** Peloton shares lost 77.8% in 2022

QUARTER ENDING REFINITIV IBES ACTUAL PROFIT BEAT, MET,

estimate per share missed

Sept. 2022 -0.64 -1.20 Missed

June 2022 -0.72 -2.68 Missed

March 2022 -0.83 -1.25 Missed

Dec. 2021 -1.20 -1.36 Missed

​​Sept 2021 -1.07 -1.21 Missed

June 2021 -0.45 -0.71 Missed

March 2021 -0.12 -0.03 Beat

Dec. 2020 0.09 0.18 Beat

(Reporting by Kannaki Deka in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D’Silva)