Gold Price Forecast: Bear Flag Breakdown Points to Lower Prices

Gold breaks down from a bear flag on Tuesday with a drop below Monday’s low of 2,320. The decline may see a repeat of the drop that followed the 2,431-record high. It was followed by a decline to a low of 2,291, essentially reaching the 50% retracement. A measured move of the second decline, from the top of the flag, matches the first decline (purple arrows) at 2,212.

This is the same as a falling ABCD where the pattern is identifying symmetry between swings. The 2,212-price level is within a price range from 2,218 (50-Day MA) to 2,208 (50% retracement). Since the 20-Day MA has been busted, the 50-Day line becomes an obvious eventual lower target.

Bear Flag Measuring Objective

Measuring the bear flag provides a slightly different target that is a little higher than the 50-Day line. If the flagpole is measured from the daily breakdown of the April 19 low of 2,373 to the recent retracement low of 2,291, a potential target of 2,238 is calculated. Given the clarity expressed by today’s selling (wide range red candle with trading continuing near the range lows) it seems that the chance of meeting the flag target becomes more likely. Selling doesn’t happen in one day and there is some similarity between today’s wide range day and the first on April 12, and the second on April 22.

Interim Target

Nevertheless, the next potential support zone is around 2,261 to 2,255, consisting of two Fibonacci levels. Also, an internal uptrend line is close to the price zone depending on when it is reached. It provides an added indication on the way down.

Regardless of the potential support levels on the way down, given the large rising parallel trend channel in gold, the lower internal uptrend line could also be reached. We will be watching for clues on the way down. As of now, the price zone around the 50-Day MA is the deepest anticipated retracement.

Weekly Bearish Signal

Last week’s low and the next support level, although minor, is 2,291. A drop below that level will trigger a bearish continuation on a weekly basis thereby further supporting the likelihood of lower prices. Gold had a strong run and long-term bullish breakout. It is coming off a 22.5% sharp rally in only 41 days. A deeper retracement is healthy for the market and will better establish support in preparation of the next rally.

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