Gold’s Retreat: Assessing Support Levels Amidst Ongoing Price Symmetry

Gold Forecast Video for 04.01.24 by Bruce Powers

Gold retraces 50% of the prior advance and finds support for the day at 2,031. A successful test of support at the 20-Day MA also completed today at 2,034. Today is the second test of support at the 20-Day line, while the first was on December 15 (C). It remains to be seen whether support will hold and turn prices higher. There are no signs of that yet. Therefore, the expectation in the near-term is for a deeper retracement, but maybe not by much.

If Gold Keeps Falling It Targets 61.8

There is likely support around the lower uptrend line, whose price will vary depending on when is reached, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,017. A little lower is the 50-Day MA at 2,008. Either of these levels may see demand increase. It seems like if gold is going to make a run for new highs in the foreseeable future, ideally, we would want to see the price structure of higher swing highs and lows retained in the rising trend channel.

Symmetry Between Swings

Gold is currently within the third leg up in a rising trend begun from the early-October swing low of 1,810. There is both time and price symmetry between the first two moves, which may provide clues to the upside target for the third move. The first advance from the October low saw the price of gold rise by 199 points or 11% in 15 days, while the second upswing was 203 or 10.5% in 15 days. This doesn’t mean that the third leg up in the trend will match the prior moves, but it could, or at least have some degree of mathematical relationship.

Price Symmetry Points to 2,176

The third advance, that started from the recent swing low of 1,973, successfully tested support at the 50-Day MA. Given that the current leg up is on its thirteenth day, a match in time looks unlikely. However, a similar move in price can be represented by the rising ABCD pattern where the CD leg equals the AB leg. That pattern completes at a target of 2,176. If reached, it will show a mathematical relationship between all three recent advances.