Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Middle East Strife Spurs Rise; Buying Ahead?

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Updated: Mar 29, 2024, 11:16 UTC

Key Points:

Oil Prices Rally: Q1 ends with gains as Russian output cuts ease global supply surplus fears.
Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Markets: Middle East conflicts and OPEC decisions keep oil, natural gas prices high.
Bullish Trends in Energy: WTI and Brent oil show strong uptrends, with key resistance levels tested.

Market Overview

Oil prices increased during the previous session, concluding the first quarter with significant gains, driven by anticipated reductions in Russian output, alleviating fears of a global supply surplus. The tight supply situation, influenced by production cuts from Russia and OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, contributed to the quarter’s strong performance.

Russia’s commitment to extend production cuts and the impact of attacks on its fuel refineries tightened supply further. Additionally, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly from the Israel-Hamas conflict and disruptions in the Red Sea, supported oil prices.

Natural gas and oil price forecasts are impacted by these dynamics, with potential upward pressure due to constrained supply and geopolitical risks. Investors are now focused on the upcoming OPEC meeting for further direction, although significant policy changes are not anticipated until June.

Impact on Natural Gas and Oil Prices: The ongoing production cuts and geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices. The market will closely monitor OPEC’s upcoming decisions for further price direction.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural Gas

Natural Gas (NG) surged to $1.7870, marking a 2.58% increase. The pivot point at $1.7982 is crucial; breaching this could affirm a bullish trend. Resistance levels are set at $1.8439, $1.8759, and $1.9166, indicating potential upward momentum.

Conversely, support levels at $1.7208, $1.6793, and $1.6321 highlight downside risks. The 50 EMA at $1.7993 aligns closely with the pivot, suggesting a balanced market sentiment, while the 200 EMA at $1.8801 points to higher long-term potential. Overall, the trend is bullish above $1.7982, but falling below this level could trigger a sharp sell-off.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI Price Chart

USOIL climbed to $83.06, a gain of 1.73%. The market hovers around the pivot point of $82.90, with a break above potentially signaling continued bullish momentum.

Resistance is eyed at $83.76, $84.53, and $85.26. Support levels are established at $82.31, $81.48, and $80.40, which could cushion any pullback.

The 50-day EMA at $81.36 and the 200-day EMA at $79.28 both underscore a strengthening market trend. The overall market sentiment for USOIL is bullish above $82.90, with a downside risk if it drops below this threshold.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent Price Chart

On March 29, UKOIL increased to $86.92, showing a 1.49% rise. Positioned just above the pivot point of $86.49, the commodity faces immediate resistance at $87.29, with further barriers at $88.14 and $89.00. Support levels are noted at $85.61, $84.69, and $83.94.

The 50-day EMA at $85.60 and the 200-day EMA at $83.74 both suggest a potential for continued bullish behavior, reinforced by the ‘Three White Soldiers’ pattern and a breakout from the symmetrical triangle.

Therefore, the trend for UKOIL is bullish above $86.49, yet a descent below this mark could lead to significant selling pressure.

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About the Author

Arslan Aliauthor

Arslan, a webinar speaker and derivatives analyst, has an MBA in Finance and MPhil in Behavioral Finance. He guides financial analysis, trading, and cryptocurrency forecasting. Expert in trading psychology and sentiment.