Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Continues

Natural gas rose above Friday’s high on Monday before triggering a breakout above the top of a symmetrical triangle at 2.01 (B). The high of the day at the time of this writing was 2.04, which was followed by an intraday pullback. Of interest will be the daily close.

A daily close above 2.01 will be a stronger sign of strength than a close below it as it would confirm the breakout above (B). Also, keep an eye on today’s close relative to Friday’s high. Once a daily close above 2.01 confirms the bullish breakout, natural gas should be ready to proceed towards higher target areas.

Upside Targets

The first upside target is close by at 2.07. If hit, it will complete an initial target for a rising ABCD pattern that is identifying price symmetry between the AB and CD legs of the advance. However, since it is close to the top of a symmetrical triangle higher prices remain on the radar. The second target from the ABCD pattern is 2.20. That target completes an ABCD pattern where the CD leg is extended by 127.2% of the AB portion of the advance.

It begins with a target range from 2.07 to the prior December 13 swing low at 2.24. Inside that price range is the completion of a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.24. Generally, a 38.2% retracement is usually the more common minimum retracement that might be seen. This means that since natural gas is showing improving strength, the 38.2% retracement should eventually be reached, at a minimum.

Signs of Strength

Last Friday natural gas rose above the lower dashed blue channel line before ending the day below it. Today, it is on track to close above it for the first time. The lower line is parallel to the top falling dashed blue line that connects the October and January swing highs. Further, natural gas is set to end on Monday at its highest daily closing price since February 5. If the top of the first target zone at 2.235 is exceeded, the next higher zone is around the 200-Day MA, currently at 2.49. It is further anchored by the 50% retracement at 2.46.

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