Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Continues to See Lack of Enthusiasm

Natural Gas Technical Analysis

You can see that we continue to just hang around the same area right around the 20 day EMA. That’s not a huge surprise this time of year because Natural gas does almost nothing. So, unless you’re a short term scalper, there’s really not a lot to do here.

However, if you’re more of a longer term swing trader like I am, I have been accumulating an ETF position, which of course has almost no leverage or actually has no leverage. And therefore, I can ride through all of this volatility. Natural gas will get a spike sooner or later in might be a heat wave in the summer, or it could possibly be as late as next winter.

We just don’t know. But what I do know is that once we get below $1.50, suddenly natural gas drillers will stop drilling because they don’t get into business to lose money. So, I do think based on that and history, that this is an area that we will see a certain amount of accumulation. I don’t know if we see a run towards the $9 level like we did a couple of cycles ago, but a target of $2.50 is very realistic sometime this year.

We just don’t know when that’s going to be. Keep in mind there’s a lot of supply out there right now. So, we need something to drill down supply, be it demand or possibly some type of geopolitical situation in the Middle East. Full disclosure, this position is part of my trading account, but it’s about 2% of my total holdings. It’s not a big position at all, and therefore I never really pay attention to it as far as a profit and loss standpoint.

But every week or so, just to see if anything’s changed. Obviously not much has.

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