Natural Gas Price Prediction – Prices Fall Despite Smaller than Expected Inventory Build

Natural gas prices took a respite following three consecutive higher trading session that grossed the May contract 7.3%. Prices were down on the new June contract by 1.7%.  According to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, warmer than normal weather is expectred to cover most of the United States for the next 8-14 days. This warmer than normal weather is likely to induce additional cooling demand.

Technical Analysis

Natural gas prices moved lower on Thursday down nearly 1.7% following a 7% rise on Monday through Wednesday. Target resistance is seen near the February highs at 3.06. The 10-day moving average crossed above the 50-day moving average, which means that a medium-term uptrend is now in place. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is also positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in positive territory with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices.

Inventories Rose Less than Expected

Natural gas in storage was 1,898 Bcf as of Friday, April 23, 2021, according to the EIA. This represents a net increase of 15 Bcf from the previous week. Expectations were for a 24 Bcf build, according to survey provider Estimize. Stocks were 302 Bcf less than last year at this time and 40 Bcf below the five-year average of 1,938 Bcf. At 1,898 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.