AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 12, 2016

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Published: Feb 11, 2016, 05:50 UTC

Analysis and Recommendation: The AUD/USD fell to trade at 0.7091 after soaring late on Wednesday the currency reversed course falling 5 points. The dollar

AUD/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 12, 2016

Analysis and Recommendation:

The AUD/USD fell to trade at 0.7091 after soaring late on Wednesday the currency reversed course falling 5 points. The dollar maintained losses, trading near its weakest level since 2014 against the yen, after Janet Yellen signaled the Federal Reserve may put off further interest-rate increases should the turmoil in global markets continue. Australian stocks rallied from a 2 1/2-year low.

A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar versus 10 major peers was near its lowest level since November after Ms Yellen’s comments initially buoyed American stocks, before they retreated into the close. While Australia’s benchmark snapped a four-day drop, futures on US indexes declined.

Markets in mainland China and Taiwan remain closed for the rest of the week for the Lunar New Year holidays, while Japan resumes Friday. An update on Malaysian factory output is due Thursday and the Philippines reviews benchmark rates.

Only secondary data are released today, with Australian consumer inflation expectations data.

Westpac senior currency strategist Sean Callow says the dollar is rising on the back of European stock rises and as the greenback slumps US Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen’s push back on talks of rate rises.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – National Founding Day
	China – Lunar New Year
NZD	Business NZ PMI (Jan)	57.9		56.7
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Jan)	49%	52%	49%
EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		281K	285K
CAD	New Housing Price Index (MoM) (Dec)		0.2%	0.2%
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, February 12, 2016

Holiday China – Lunar New Year

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Dec)		3.0%	1.8%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Jan)		-0.8%	-0.8%
EUR	German GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.3%	0.3%
EUR	German GDP (YoY) (Q4)		2.3%	1.8%
EUR	EU Finance Ministers Meeting
EUR	GDP (YoY) (Q4)		1.5%	1.6%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q4)		0.3%	0.3%
EUR	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)		0.3%	-0.7%
USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)		0.1%	-0.1%
USD	Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan)		-0.9%	-1.1%
USD	Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan)		-1.4%	-1.2%
USD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)		0.1%	-0.1%
USD	FOMC Member Kaplan Speaks
USD	Business Inventories (MoM) (Dec)		0.1%	-0.2%
USD	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		82.0	82.7