Copper Fundamental Forecast – February 11, 2016

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Updated: Feb 10, 2016, 18:27 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: March Comex High Grade Copper futures posted a two-sided trade on Wednesday before finishing lower for the session.

Copper Fundamental Forecast – February 11, 2016

Analysis and Recommendations:

March Comex High Grade Copper futures posted a two-sided trade on Wednesday before finishing lower for the session. Uncertainty over upcoming remarks from Fed Chair Janet Yellen kept investors on the sidelines. Volume remained below average, mostly due to the impact of the week long Chinese Lunar New Year.

Copper production in Democratic Republic of Congo dropped for the first time in six years in 2015 and this year could be another tough one as low commodity prices continue to exert an impact on production plans. Output dropped 3.3 percent in Africa’s top copper producer to 995,805 tonnes from 1.03 million tonnes in 2014, the first time production fell since the global economic downturn in 2009.

Traders will be watching to see if Yellen’s comments today have an impact on the direction of the U.S. Dollar. According to traders, losses on industrial metals have been limited lately by the tumbling dollar. The lower U.S. currency makes metals price in dollars cheaper for non-U.S. firms.

From a technical perspective, the market is testing a major retracement zone that may attract fresh speculative buying. However, the strength of the next rally will be determined by whether bullish investors can build a support base between 2.0365 to 2.0130.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

China – Lunar New Year
USD	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	2.400M	3.80M	3.837M
NZD	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%	-0.2%
AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	4.2%	-1.0%	-3.5%
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)	6.0%		-2.7%
GBP	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.7%
GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-1.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate			0.6%
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
USD	Crude Oil Inventories		3.933M	7.792M
USD	FOMC Member Williams Speaks
USD	Federal Budget Balance (Jan)		45.0B	-14.0B
NZD	Business NZ Pmi (Jan)			56.7
GBP	RICS House Price Balance (Jan)		52%	50%

30-Minute Copper

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

China – Lunar New Year
EUR	Eurogroup Meetings
USD	Initial Jobless Claims	281K	285K
USD	Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
AUD	RBA Governor Stevens Speaks	3.933M	7.792M
AUD	Home Loans (MoM) (Dec)

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 11 N/A Italy Euro 4-5bn 30-yr syndicated bond auction

Feb 11 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Feb 11 11:10 Italy Announces details of bond auction

Feb 11 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Feb 11 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Feb 11 n/a US Details of 30-yr TIPS auction on Feb 18

Feb 12 11:10 France Details of bond auction on 18 Feb

About the Author

James Hyerczykauthor

James is a Florida-based technical analyst, market researcher, educator and trader with 35+ years of experience. He is an expert in the area of patterns, price and time analysis as it applies to futures, Forex, and stocks.