Copper Fundamental Forecast – May 2, 2016

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Published: Apr 29, 2016, 10:33 UTC

Copper gained 48 points to 2.28 following the global commodities rally on better than expected oil prices and a weaker US dollar. Base metals rallied,

Copper Fundamental Forecast – May 2, 2016

Copper gained 48 points to 2.28 following the global commodities rally on better than expected oil prices and a weaker US dollar. Base metals rallied, with aluminum set for its biggest monthly advance since 2012 amid signs of improved demand in China, the world’s biggest consumer. Raw materials have recovered as China’s property and construction industry rebounded after a slow start to the year. Copper, zinc, lead and nickel climbed at least 1 percent. (Bloomberg)

Copper fell under pressure at the beginning of the week as markets reacted to Chinese exchanges’ decision to increase margin requirements and transaction fees in effort to curb speculative buying of commodities, which many say have pushed some commodities on unsustainable rallies. While copper was not one of the commodities directly target, the focus was mostly on the steel and iron ore market, copper still felt a sentimental impact.

Investors are interpreting the likelihood of a June rate hike at between 15-20%, basically at the same level of expectation as before the Fed statement. Copper is a dollar denominated commodity; therefore, when the U.S. dollar retreats it encourages holders of international currency to purchase the commodity.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)	-9.8%		10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)	6.2		3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)	-0.2%	0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)	0.4%	0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)	-1.1%	0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	0.9%	0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)	0.6%	0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)	10.2%	10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 2, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Labor Day
	United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Mar)			-5.3%
CNY	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)			49.7
EUR	German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		51.9	51.9
EUR	Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		51.5	51.5
USD	Manufacturing PMI (Apr)			50.8
USD	ISM Manufacturing Employment			48.1
USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)		51.5	51.8