S&P500 and Nasdaq 100: Premarket Futures Slip as Traders Await Jobs and CPI Forecast

Futures Slip as Traders Brace for Jobs and Inflation Data

U.S. stock futures are easing early Monday as traders positioned for a heavy slate of economic releases and earnings after a volatile stretch that ended with a strong rebound.

At 11:39 GMT, S&P 500 futures were slipping 0.23%, Nasdaq 100 futures were declining 0.45%, and Dow futures were dipping 0.07%. The quiet pullback followed a powerful relief rally that helped the Dow close above 50,000 for the first time, supported by renewed interest in beaten-down tech names.

Friday’s rebound came after a week marked by aggressive selling in software and high-growth names, a move intensified by a sharp drop in Bitcoin before the cryptocurrency recovered above $70,000. By Friday, buyers stepped back into software, lifting the sector’s major ETF by 3.5% and ending an eight-day losing streak. Traders viewed the bounce as a temporary reset following a rapid sentiment reversal earlier in the week.

Tech Bounce: Temporary or Sustainable?

Friday’s advance temporarily eased pressure on software stocks, which have struggled since the sector fell into bear-market territory two weeks ago. Analysts noted that broader market progress will require more consistent participation from tech, particularly software, after several weeks of unusual underperformance. While Friday’s response improved sentiment, traders remain cautious given the sub-sector’s recent inability to hold gains for more than a session or two.

Wednesday’s Jobs Report: The Key Test

Attention now turns to Wednesday’s delayed January jobs report, rescheduled due to the recent government shutdown. Expectations sit at 55,000 new jobs following ADP’s weaker-than-expected 22,000 private-payroll figure. A downside surprise could reinforce concerns that labor demand is cooling more quickly than anticipated. Conversely, a firmer print may reset rate expectations if wage pressures remain sticky. With the Federal Reserve maintaining a data-dependent stance, traders see this report as a pivotal driver of near-term sentiment.

Friday’s CPI: Inflation Still Matters

The January consumer price index (CPI), also postponed by the shutdown, is due Friday with consensus calling for a 2.5% annual increase. Inflation trends have been central to rate expectations, and another cooler reading could offer support for risk assets already showing signs of fatigue. A hotter-than-expected number, however, risks reigniting concerns after several weeks of interest-rate repricing.

Earnings Could Reinforce the Rotation

This week’s corporate results could influence whether the rotation out of tech resumes. Reports from Coca-Cola and Ford Motor on Tuesday may offer signals on consumer resilience and industrial demand—two areas that have recently held up better than high-growth sectors.

Technical Picture: 50-Day MA is the Battleground

Traders are going to find out early in the session where momentum stands as the March E-mini S&P 500 Index futures contract currently straddles its 50-day moving average at 6934.55.

A sustained move over the 50-day MA will be a sign of strength, but the market will still face headwinds at the short-term 50% level at 6980.25. This level may be the true breakout point, shifting traders’ eyes to the record high at 7043.00.

The inability to hold the 50-day MA will indicate that there are still sellers in the market despite Friday’s impressive rally. A trade back under 6892.50 will turn the E-mini lower for the year. If this rattles traders enough, we could have a pullback to at least 6865.50.

Short-Term Outlook: Waiting on the Data

Given Friday’s impressive rebound and improving risk appetite, the near-term tone is slightly constructive. However, sustained upside will depend on this week’s jobs and inflation data confirming moderating economic pressures. Traders should expect cautious positioning and tighter ranges until Wednesday’s jobs report provides clearer direction.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.