The phrase “fake news” has been making the rounds around Washington lately. Most of the time it has been used by politicians, but last week, I felt it may have been tossed around a few times at the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy meeting. Last week’s Fed interest rate decision was book-ended by two … Continue reading Fed Treating Inflation Data Like “Fake News”

Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to increase the target for the federal funds rate from 1% to 1.25% on Wednesday. Traders are pricing in close to a 100% chance of this happening so any surprises will be to the downside. Since last December, the Fed has been expected to raise the policy rate another … Continue reading Delays in Trump’s Agenda, Debt-Ceiling Will Force Fed to Pass on September Rate Hike

Mideast unstoppable tensions’ shadows had always direct influence on the financial markets since the 70s of the previous century. However, the surface aspects of every single dilemma are usually hiding a devil fact in the details. On June 4th a sudden rift between Arab countries took place amid major political and economic events. Saudi Arabia, … Continue reading Qatar in Boiling Water

When the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate last December, it forecast three rates during 2017. At the time, it cited an improving economy and labor market as the reasons for its lofty projections. It also projected slightly faster increases the next few years amid the prospect of a massive government stimulus. The forecast for … Continue reading Falling Yields and Rising Gold Telling Markets Fed Will Limit Future Rate Hikes