Natural Gas Price Forecast: Bearish Daily Reversal Forms Despite Weekly Breakout

Following a weak closing price near the lows of the day on Thursday, natural gas retested highs on Friday with a daily high of $3.63. However, the rally further confirmed resistance as sellers quickly took back control and the price subsequently dropped below Thursday’s low of $3.51. Natural gas hit a low for the day at $3.50, at the time of this writing, and looks likely to end the day with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. A shooting star pattern also formed on Thursday. The pullback tested support around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.49.

Deeper Pullback?

Heading into next week, if today’s low is broken then the 20-Day line may fail as well on the way to a test of support around the longer term and more significant 200-Day MA, now at $3.45. Notice that the 20-Day MA (purple) is declining towards the 200-Day line. So, the potential drop below the 20-Day MA, if it does occur, is lessened the closer the two lines become.

Trendline Shows Resistance

When considering the rising dashed trendline that was previously the lower line of a rising trend channel, the line has indicated an area of resistance for the past four days. The line previously represented dynamic support and now resistance around the line has been confirmed. Despite several attempts to break above the line, there has not been a daily close above it. Since it is acting as resistance following a seven-day advance, a period of consolidation or a deeper pullback could follow.

Weekly Breakout Confirms Above $3.47

A weekly bull breakout triggered this week on a rally above last week’s high of $3.47. Therefore, the week is set to end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low. The breakout will be confirmed on a weekly basis with a closing price today above last week’s high. Once the weekly breakout confirms, natural gas should see at least one higher weekly high and low as a continuation, if not more. It is also interesting to note that this week’s low was within the top third of last week’s price. That by itself is a sign of strength. But confirmation of that weekly breakout will be key the weekly closing price could be below the midpoint of the week’s range. That would be a bearish indication.

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