Palladium Forecast: Is This Bounce A Turning Point?

In precious metals investing, gold and silver rightfully get most of the attention. But their other precious metal cousins, platinum and palladium, are worth considering as they tend to move in sympathy—and can be more volatile—during the ongoing gold rally. I argue that the multi-year rally is structural and is likely to stay elevated moving forward. We can translate that structural floor to palladium too because of its sympathetic trading. Palladium is now in a very interesting situation; its price just bounced off a strong institutional support zone and looks like an opportunity for buying into a precious metals rebound. And if metals do catch a rally, palladium stands to make even more than gold based on its current setup.

The Precious Metal That Lagged The First Rally

One thing to consider is that palladium has trailed its precious metal peers in the last year, outperforming gold for most of the year. It’s been falling in the last month, just like the others, and really since the end of January. This has mirrored other metals’ fall, but it’s been hit the worst so far. So much so that it’s now returned less than gold in the last year, despite that prior outperformance.

For reference, I am using the abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) to model palladium’s price, mostly because this is the vehicle of choice that I trade exposure to palladium with personally. This analysis could also apply just as easily to futures traders as well.

One of the core reasons is that palladium is not money like gold and silver are; its primary use is in industrial components like catalytic converters for cars, not as an asset that central banks hold. After a surge in recycled palladium efforts, substitutions with platinum took place across supply chains, and the uptick in EV sales (which do not need catalytic converters) all caused the music to stop in a way that it didn’t for other precious metals. But much of the industrial demand has stabilized; EV sales heading into 2026 are weaker than they were in 2025, and we’re starting to see the (new) normalization of the palladium market after a few years of turmoil.

Most importantly, the U.S. government is now working to crack down on palladium dumping that has depressed the price over the last few years in particular. The ITC’s finding that Russian palladium exporters dumped at unfair prices really matters because Russia represents ~40% of U.S. palladium imports.

This case is still being determined, with the outcome not until later this year. I expect the sentence to come with protective duties on palladium, which could seriously affect the price—likely pushing it up if the duties are heavy. And I would expect any retaliatory duties put on foreign belligerents like Russia by this current administration to be heavy, though it’s unclear what the ITC ruling will be. It is doubtful that their determination would be a negative catalyst, given that they have already found that the dumping was occurring and are now only deliberating on the corrective measures to impose.

Palladium Just Bounced Off Institutional Support

Aside from the macro/fundamental picture, which is more of a long-term outlook, the current technical picture presents opportunity for investors willing to take on some risk. After a quick sell-off over the last few weeks, the price is sitting under the 200-day EMA zone and just bounced on the anchored VWAP.

This looks like a bearish chart, and the recent breakdown is unmistakably so. However, we have now hit oversold on the RSI as we bounce off the anchored VWAP; at the same time, the MACD is starting to curl up, meaning that momentum may be turning in palladium’s favor (but it hasn’t yet). That rightfully gives traders some hope and could be a signal of a local bottom if momentum continues.

For bulls: the anchored VWAP must continue to hold, currently at 128. If that holds and price can reclaim the 200-day EMA at 132 with a bullish candle, that will be confirmation that we have flipped the resistance to support, and the rally could continue back up toward the 50-day EMA. A reclaim over that level, currently 146, would be the ultimate bullish signal, and then on to the 155 zone before 175 and then 200.

But perhaps I’m getting ahead of myself, because all of that hinges on the 121 level holding up as support. If that breaks, none of the levels above it will matter.

For bears: this is the last stand for the bulls, and a convincing close fully below the anchored VWAP at 121 would be invalidation of the support level. That will invite lower lows, which could go as far as the 110-112 zone based on the prior structure from last summer.

The current chart is inviting, but prudent traders will want to wait to see if the sell-off worsens in the coming days or if reclaiming 132 is possible. Waiting for the signal to buy once we breach the 200-day EMA may save some investors from being sucked into a bull trap.

Conclusion

Palladium, at the present moment but also generally, is not for the faint of heart. But the setup currently is inviting, so long as the current level holds. We just saw a decisive bounce, but its momentum needs to be sustained before we can call anything conclusive about where palladium is headed next.

Fundamentally, the picture is finally normalizing as the structural supply and demand issues have been mostly resolved. There is still some resolution missing in the ITC’s ruling against Russian palladium exporters dumping to artificially suppress prices, but the overall picture is returning to normalcy. That is good news for technicals, which can be dashed in the right macro/fundamental circumstances.

The current level sits just above major institutional support at the anchored VWAP, and it acted as support very recently. Investors interested here could see asymmetrical upside for the risk involved, but prudence is important to maintain here. It is critical for traders to consider waiting for confirmation of the break back above the 200-day EMA at 132 before taking any meaningful positions.

This is a speculative position that could outperform gold if precious metals continue their rally post-bounce. The laggard metal with a catalyst is one I’m watching, but I caution investors to heed one of the most important maxims in investing: position sizing is often more important than security selection.