Forecasts & Analysis

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at 98.188, the direction of the March U.S. Dollar Index on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at 99.200.

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $1.917, the direction of the April Natural Gas market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor 50% level at $1.949 and the downtrending Gann angle at $1.926.

The majors are on the move early. Breaking back through early highs will be needed, however, to avoid a reversal.

The technology index’s closing price reversal top and its subsequent confirmation led to a shift in momentum to the downside. This means were likely to see a further break into the retracement zone at 9344.25 to 9245.50.

The short-term direction of the AUD/USD is likely to be determined by trader reaction to Friday’s high at .6639.

The price action suggests AUD/USD and NZD/USD traders were heavily over-weighted to the downside and needed to rebalance after U.S. Treasury yields plunged following the release of the weaker-than-expected U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI reports.

Japan’s economy shrank 1.6% in the fourth quarter of 2019, according to a government estimate released on February 17. The decline from the third quarter is the biggest contraction since 2014.

It’s been a mixed start to the day. Failure to move back through to key levels by late morning could see the majors take a bigger hit on the day.

Gold prices surged and the dollar eases

Natural gas prices whipsawed for a second consecutive trading session initially testing lower levels and then rebounding to close the session -0.6%. For the week, prices rallied nearly 4% but well of the highs of the week. This follows Thursday’s outside day reversal pattern is a negative sign. The weather