Forecasts & Analysis

The Dollar/Yen closed lower last week in continuation of the selling that began the previous week. If you recall, that weakness was fueled by dovish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and disappointing U.S. Consumer Inflation and Retail Sales data. This news was strong enough to reduce the chances of a third Fed rate hike … Continue reading USD/JPY Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Traders Will React to Fed, Treasury Yields, Trump Woes

The Australian Dollar rose sharply last week after the minutes of the RBA’s July 4 meeting, released on July 18, showed the central bank now estimates the “neutral” official cash rate to be 3.5 percent – a full 200 basis points above where the cash rate is now. The AUD/USD closed at .7913, up 0.0087 … Continue reading AUD/USD and NZD/USD Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Aussie Traders Have to Deal with Debelle Comments, Quarterly CPI and Fed

After several weeks of consolidation in June and early July, U.S. equity markets have posted solid gains the last two weeks. All major cash and futures indexes have even reached new all-time highs. In the cash market, the benchmark S&P 500 Index settled last week at 2,473, up 0.50%. It is up 10.4% for the … Continue reading S&P 500; US Indexes Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Earnings and Fed on Tap This Week

Gold surged to its highest level since June 28th on lowered rate hike expectations and on a weakening US dollar versus the Euro and Aussie. Spot Gold finished the previous week at $1254.50. Crude oil posted a two sided trade last week, however, the commodity dropped 2.77% to close the week at $45.62 a barrel. The technical … Continue reading Commodities Technical Analysis, July 24th – July 28th, 2017

S&P 500 The S&P 500 eventually went sideways during the session on Friday, but then fell significantly to reach down towards the 2460 handle. However, we have bounced a bit and I believe that the S&P 500 will continue to benefit from the overall bullish attitude. I believe that we will break out to a … Continue reading Major US Indices Forecast, July 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The US Dollar has continued its downfall versus all major currencies as US rate hike expectations significantly decreased while other central banks imply for economic growth and towards tightening monetary policy. We have a busy week in front of us with the BoJ minutes, Australia CPI, UK GDP, FOMC rate decision, Japan CPI US GDP … Continue reading Weekly Forex Technical Analysis, July 24 – July 28, 2017

S&P 500 The S&P 500 initially fell during the week but found enough support of the 2450 level to turn around and bounce higher. The fact that we have done this suggests to me that we are going to continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the 2500 level above. I have no interest in … Continue reading Major US Indices, Forecast for The Week of July 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

Natural gas futures spiked to a fresh three-week high on July 20 in reaction to a better-than-expected government storage report, but sellers took over from there, producing a bearish chart pattern on the daily chart that led to further selling on Friday. The move was strong enough to erase the week’s gains, setting up the … Continue reading Natural Gas Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Rangebound Until European and U.S. Weather Models Agree

Gold futures surged last week to their highest level since June 28 after the U.S. Dollar was hammered by events out of Australia and the Euro Zone. Weaker U.S. Treasury yields also made gold a more attractive investment. Gold was also supported by concerns over the Trump administration’s involvement with the Russians and the election, … Continue reading Price of Gold Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Dovish Fed Should Should Underpin Prices

We had been mentioning in several of our forecasts that the DAX index does not look to be working on strong foundations and despite some strong bounces over the last couple of weeks, it always looked as though the weakness was just beneath the surface. It looked as though the bears could take the time … Continue reading DAX Index Fundamental Analysis – week of July 24, 2017

U.S. West Texas Intermediate and international-benchmark Brent crude oil posted a volatile two-sided trade last week before settling lower. The bullish price action was fueled by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. inventories. The bearish news was increased production from OPEC. September WTI crude oil futures settled at $45.77, down $0.98 or -2.10% and October Brent … Continue reading Oil Price Fundamental Weekly Forecast – Oil Ministers May Try to Limit Libyan, Nigerian Production at Key OPEC Meeting

The USDCAD continued on its downward journey through the course of last week which was not a major surprise considering how weak the dollar is, across the board, and how strong the CAD has been, with the ample support of data and the BOC as well. We now reach a crucial price region in this … Continue reading USD/CAD Fundamental Analysis – week of July 24, 2017

The GBPUSD had a very difficult week after promising the sky in the week before. Following the weak CPI and retail sales data from the US in the week before, we saw the pair shoot up through the 1.3030 region and have a look above the 1.31 region briefly that day. The traders and the … Continue reading GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of July 24, 2017

The AUD/USD surged to the upside last week, driven higher by hawkish comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia. However, an RBA deputy governor threw some water on the rally on Friday that could mean a short-term top is in. The RBA set a bullish tone early in the week when the minutes of its … Continue reading AUD/USD Forex Technical Analysis – Debelle’s Dovish Comments May Have Stopped the Rally

September Comex High Grade Copper futures surged to their highest level since March 2 on Friday before erasing all of those early gains. However, enough buying came in late to produce a higher close for the day and the week. The rally into the 4 ½ month high was driven by strong growth in top … Continue reading Comex High Grade Copper Price Futures (HG) Technical Analysis – Sustained Move Over $2.7345 Bullish

In a way, it was a typical week for the EURUSD pair. The traders had to get it into their head that the pair is in a clear uptrend. Any other thought would just spoil their participation in the party that the euro bulls have been having over the last few weeks. Last week, we … Continue reading EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis – week of July 24, 2017

The German index fell significantly during the week, slicing through the €12,500 level. Not only that, we are testing a significant area of that appears on the chart from several weeks ago. The gap in that area should send this market looking for support, and we have filled the gap, so it’s likely that buyers … Continue reading DAX Index forecast for the week of July 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

Dow Jones 30 The Dow Jones 30 initially fell during the week but found enough support underneath the 21,500 level to bounce and form a bit of a hammer. I believe that the market will continue to go higher, as stock markets continue to benefit from a weaker US dollar. Ultimately, I believe that this … Continue reading Dow Jones 30 and NASDAQ 100 Forecast for the Week of July 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 initially fell during the week but found enough support of the 2450 level to turn around and bounce higher. The fact that we have done this suggests to me that we are going to continue to go higher, perhaps reaching towards the 2500 level above. I have no interest in shorting this … Continue reading S&P 500 Forecast for the Week of July 24, 2017, Technical Analysis

The FTSE 100 had a slightly positive week as we initially tried to reach above the 7500 level, but found too much in the way of resistance above there. However, as the week wore on the British pound lost some strength and that of course is good for exports when it comes out of the … Continue reading FTSE 100 Index forecast for the week of July 24, 2017, Technical Analysis