Forecasts & Analysis

The weather is bearish; however, oversold conditions could lead to a surprise short-covering rally. Be prepared for a possible two-sided trade.

Today’s price action suggests what we’ve been saying for about two weeks – crude oil prices are likely to remain rangebound as sellers, betting on slower demand growth, keep a lid on rallies, and buyers hoping for higher demand because of the U.S.-China trade deal, bet on a global economic

The “sluggish” forecast from the IMF likely means that central banks will keep interest rates at or near historically low levels. Furthermore, it opens the door to more creative central bank stimulus like Quantitative Easing (QE) and fresh fiscal stimulus. This could provide support for gold throughout the year.

Job numbers out of the UK were generally positive on Tuesday, triggering a rally in the pound to dollar exchange rate.

In a quarterly review of its forecasts, the BOJ revised up its growth projection for the fiscal year beginning in April to 0.9% from an estimate of 0.7% growth made in October, helped by a boost from the government’s fiscal stimulus package.

After a quiet start to the week, EUR/USD has fallen into a range while investors await Thursday’s ECB meeting.

Equity markets moved into risk-off mode overnight with E-mini S&P futures down 40bp, and Europe is expected to open the same. Asian weakness was led primarily by the spread of the coronavirus in China, which comes on top of a downgrade of global growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund,

EUR/USD is showing strong bearish price action after breaking below the support trend lines. Price action looks ready for a decisive breakout below 1.1090.

Dear Traders, The GBP/CHF is still bearish, despite the retracement. If the market manages to stay below 1.2680 we should see a continuation down.

Based on the early price action and the current price at .6849, the direction of the AUD/USD the rest of the session on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the short-term 50% level at .6851.