SpaceX Stock Slides as Lock-Up Expiry Overshadows 92% Revenue Beat

SpaceX Beat Estimates but the Stock Is Still Selling

SpaceX delivered $7.81 billion in revenue on its first public earnings report, up 92% from a year ago and ahead of the $6.93 billion estimate. The stock ran 9.4% Tuesday to $125.33 and is giving it all back Wednesday. A 92% revenue beat that cannot hold a rally for more than one session tells you the market has a problem with the stock that one quarter cannot fix.

The IPO priced at $135. The stock has not been back. Thursday’s lock-up expiry releases insider and early-investor shares into a market that is already underwater from the offering.

At 20:52 GMT, SpaceX is trading $116.79, down $8.54 or 6.81%.

Starlink Delivered but the AI Buildout Is Expensive

Starlink brought in $4.29 billion, above the $3.83 billion estimate. That is the one business at SpaceX making money and it beat. Subscribers are growing across consumer, enterprise, aviation, maritime and government contracts. The satellite network is expanding coverage and Starlink is one of the few global connectivity options that actually works in remote areas, at sea and in the air.

The AI side came in strong too. Revenue hit $2.56 billion against a $2.18 billion estimate across xAI, Grok, X and the data-center operation. Compute contracts with Anthropic, Google and Reflection AI are building a real revenue base. Some of the recurring revenue has not been recognized yet.

Here is the problem with both numbers. Starlink’s average revenue per user is falling as the company pushes into cheaper international plans. AI lost the company money last year to the tune of $4.9 billion. The proposed Terafab chip facility in East Texas with Tesla and Intel could run $119 billion at full buildout. Revenue is growing fast. So is the spending required to keep it growing.

Thursday’s Lock-Up Changes the Trade

The earnings report answered the revenue question. Thursday answers the supply question. Insider and early-investor shares become eligible for sale for the first time since the June IPO, and they hit the market with the stock 14% below its offering price.

Starlink is funding the company. AI revenue is real but the losses are large. Starship reported $962 million in space revenue against an $835 million estimate but the vehicle has not entered commercial service and remains a cost center alongside the AI buildout. Falcon keeps launching but nobody owns SpaceX at this valuation for the launch business.

I think the lock-up matters more than the earnings right now. A 92% revenue beat could not hold the stock above $125 for one session. Adding supply from insiders into that kind of selling pressure is a difficult setup for buyers no matter what the fundamentals show.

Daily SpaceX Technical Analysis

After confirming Monday’s potentially bullish closing price reversal bottom at $104.83 and closing at $125.33 on Tuesday, SpaceX is falling after the release of its first quarterly earnings report. At 20:52 GMT, the stock is trading $116.79, down $8.54 or -6.81%.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. However, the closing price reversal bottom at $104.83 and the subsequent follow-through rally suggests that momentum may be shifting to the upside.

Given the new short-term range at $104.83 to $126.71, the key to sustaining the rally will be trader reaction to its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $115.77 to $113.19.

If aggressive counter-trend buyers step in at $115.77 to $113.19 then a secondary higher bottom could form. The first objective of this move could take SpaceX to $135.07 to $137.65 or close to the Initial Offering Price at $135.00.

The journey back to just $165.24, 50% of its all-time range of $225.64 to $104.83, is likely to be a labored event with potential headwinds the IPO price at $135 and the first public trade price at $150.

What to Watch

The earnings gave buyers something to point to. The lock-up expiry on Thursday gives sellers something to sell into. That is the tension for the rest of the week. If insiders hold through Thursday, the earnings beat has room to work and the retracement zone can hold as support. If supply hits the market while the stock is already fading from Tuesday’s high, the main trend stays down and a lower level has to be found.

Starlink is carrying the company and it delivered. AI revenue is building but the capital requirements are growing faster than the returns. Starship still needs commercial milestones before the market treats it as more than a future promise. The earnings report was strong. The stock’s inability to hold the rally is the more important signal heading into a week where the float is about to get larger.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.