Forecasts & Analysis | Commodities, Page

Tropical storm Imelda heads toward Texas

Gold futures are holding support around $1500 ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision. Our intermediate cycle work supports a correction into October or November. A breakdown below $1490 in gold futures would signal the next leg lower in precious metals.

The news of the drone attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend prompted a big upside move in Oil (over 10%) and a moderate downside rotation in the US major indexes/stock market. Although prices had recovered slightly by the opening bell on Monday, September 16, the shock wave resulting

The Silver markets are hanging about the $18 level, as we await the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and of course the following statement. With that in mind, we could get a lot of movement out of the silver market once that comes out at 2:30 PM New York time

Crude oil markets melted down a bit during the trading session on Tuesday as reports leaked that the Saudi production could be back up to par in just a few weeks. That’s much less worrisome than originally anticipated, and therefore we are already starting to see the market try to

Natural gas markets have pulled back a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we have seen the market gravitate around the 200 day EMA. Ultimately though, not much has changed over the last 24 hours.

Gold markets continued to go back and forth during the trading session on Tuesday, as we continue to drift around just above the $1500 level. That being the case, the market looks very likely to try to find support underneath.

After a double-digit rise to start off the week, oil has lost ground on Tuesday. Upcoming crude inventory reports are predicting a decline in stockpiles, which could see the volatility continue

Based on the early price action and the current price at $61.88, the direction of the November WTI crude oil futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the major Fibonacci level at $62.64.

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1511.40, the direction of the December Comex gold futures contract on Tuesday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $1504.40.

Silver prices are flat in the Tuesday session. Will we see the metal make a push towards the round number of $18.00?

Markets react relatively sluggishly to the events of the beginning of the week. Oil remains at elevated levels, climbing13% since the beginning of the week.

Traders expect the API report to show a 2.1 million barrel draw down. A larger-than-expected draw could spike prices higher. This is because the U.S. is expected to fill in any major shortfalls from the Saudi loss. 

The recent sell-off from multi-year highs indicates that gold investors have cut the chances of a U.S. recession, the current sideways price action indicates investors are searching for a new catalyst. The 25-basis point rate cut is priced in. Traders are also feeling more optimistic over U.S.-China trade relations.

It’s becoming highly unlikely that the Saudi attacks are helping to support prices. However, it is clear that the warmer trends over the 11- to 15-day period are helping to underpin prices. This should be your near-term focus.

After the news of the drone attack on the Saudi Arabia oil refinery, traders knew this week would be full of bigger price moves, reversals and some real opportunity for profits. We were also well aware of the risks of engaging in these market moves prior to fully understanding

Tropical storm threats continue to generate volatility

Gold rises and remains oversold

Based on Monday’s price action and the current price at $62.02, the direction of the November WTI crude oil market the rest of the week is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the Fibonacci level at $62.64.

Silver markets have gapped higher to kick off the week, breaking above the $17.50 level. At this point, the market is ready to continue going higher, based upon the fear that comes into play based upon the drone attacks in Saudi Arabia.