Forecasts & Analysis | Commodities, Page

Gold could be under pressure this week if recession fears continue to subside. There aren’t many major economic events this week so if there is volatility, it will likely be fueled by unexpected events by China or the United States. The key market moving event could take place on Thursday

Traders are focusing on two things:  Possible OPEC production cuts and lower demand due to a weakening global economy. They don’t seem to be too worried about U.S. growth at this time. However, they are expressing concerns about the rising U.S. production.

The week will start with mixed weather conditions. NatGasWeather points out blistering conditions in Texas and out West, but cooler-trending weather outlooks for the rest of the country.

Based on Friday’s price action and the close at $1523.60, the direction of the December Comex gold futures market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the 50% level at $1517.50.

On Friday, October WTI crude oil settled between a pair of 50% levels at $53.95 and $55.72. Since the trend is down, we’ll look at it from the short-side perspective. Based on the close at $54.81, the direction of the market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader

Based on last week’s price action and the close at $57.67, the direction of the December Brent crude oil market on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the minor pivot at $57.97.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $57.40 will change the main trend to up. A move through $50.50 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

No tropical cyclones are expected

Weak housing data weighed on short term yields

Silver markets went back and forth during the week, as we continue to dance around the $70.00 level. At this point, the market looks very likely to be a bit exhausted, as the $17.00 level has been important more than once.

The crude oil markets initially tried to rally during the week but failed as we did of forming a shooting star in both grades that we follow here at FX Empire. With this, crude oil looks like it still has many issues.

Natural gas markets initially tried to rally during the week but as you can see have given back quite a bit of the gains. We are closing below the $2.20 level which of course is a very negative sign.

Gold markets rallied again during the week, but quite frankly have underperformed later in the week. At this point, there is a bit of a shooting star for the week, and this suggests that perhaps a little bit of a pullback is coming. This however doesn’t mean that I’m looking

Silver markets fell rather hard during the trading session on Friday to close out the week but have turned right back around to show signs of support. At this point, the market looks very likely to continue the uptrend but a pullback is possible.

The crude oil markets fell significantly during the trading session on Friday to close out the week and show signs of weakness yet again. At this point I believe that the market is more than likely going to continue to the downside, so I am shorting.

Natural gas markets fell on Friday and a continuation of the negative pressure that we have seen for some time. This isn’t much of a surprise, because quite frankly this is a market that continues to suffer oversupply.

Gold markets pulled back slightly during the trading session on Friday as perhaps a bit of profit taking has come into the marketplace. Ultimately, the market is still bullish though, so I think it’s only a matter time before we rally.

Gold is going to have a hard time mounting a rally on Friday as long as yields remain firm, investors are willing to take on risk and the dollar continues to strengthen. It looks like it is going to take a surprise event to turn the market around today.

The intermediate-term range is $2.338 to $2.045. Its retracement zone at $2.191 to $2.226 is currently being tested. Trader reaction to this zone should determine the direction of the market today.

What bullish traders are really hoping for is a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and renewed strength in U.S. equity markets. This would send an even stronger signal that talk of a U.S. recession is a little premature.